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Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News
Paul Huttner

Summery weekend ahead; Twin Cities' drought persists

Drought conditions persist around the Twin Cities. But most of Minnesota is much better off than 1 year ago.

DNR fishes pond at Minnesota State Fair
DNR fishes pond at Minnesota State Fair
Paul Huttner/MPR News

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What a difference a year can make in weather.

Just 1 year ago, 99% of Minnesota was abnormally dry or in drought. We were near the peak of one of the worst droughts on record in Minnesota.

U.S. Drought Monitor for Minnesota
U.S. Drought Monitor for Minnesota August 24, 2021.
USDA/UNL

Fast-forward to this week. 80% of Minnesota is not in drought mode this week. And the 10% of Minnesota that is in moderate to severe drought is focused from the Twin Cities area into a sliver of southwest Minnesota.

Here’s Thursday’s updated U.S. Drought Monitor map for Minnesota.

U.S. Drought Monitor
U.S. Drought Monitor for Minnesota on August 25, 2022.
USDA/UNL

The bottom line is we’re way better off for moisture than we were a year ago across most of Minnesota.

Beautiful Friday ahead

The sun shines bright late this afternoon into the Weather Lab window. But clouds hung around a little longer than I expected Thursday in the Twin Cities and southern Minnesota.

The forecast models for Friday insist we’ll see more consistent sunshine across our state. Highs temperatures will be very close to the average across Minnesota for August 26. We’ll top out around 80 degrees in the Twin Cities Friday afternoon.

Forecast high temperatures Friday
Forecast high temperatures Friday.
NOAA

Spotty weekend rainfall coevrage

The weekend will feel more summery across most of Minnesota. Highs will push into the lower 80s Saturday, with mid to upper 80s likely by Sunday afternoon.

Forecast high temperatures Sunday
Forecast high temperatures Sunday
NOAA

A weak system will slide through Minnesota Saturday. That will drive a few spotty showers and thunderstorms pockets this weekend. Rainfall coverage looks relatively low, maybe around 20 to 30 percent.

NOAA’s NAM model seems reasonable as it generates scattered rain favoring northern Minnesota Friday night, and spotty rain pockets across central and southern Minnesota Saturday. The loop below runs between 10 pm Friday and 1 am Sunday.

NOAA NAM model
NOAA NAM model between 10 pm Friday and 1 am Sunday.
NOAA via tropical tidbits

Overall rainfall totals this weekend look spotty and light. The best chance for a soaking half inch to an inch of rain favors northern and far southern Minnesota. Again.

European model (ECMWF) precipitation output
European model (ECMWF) precipitation output through Sunday.
ECMWF via pivotal weather

Lakes and lawns need a big soaking rain one of these days around the greater Twin Cities area.