Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

A 'second summer' ahead for Minnesota in September?

Outlooks favor warmer-than-average temperatures in September

NOAA CFS2 temperature outlook
NOAA CFS2 temperature outlook for September 2022.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

I posted earlier Thursday about our short-term forecast and the warmth that looks likely into the first week of September.

A look at likely weather patterns further out suggests summerlike weather may linger for much of September this year.

Jet stream patterns aloft control temperature patterns here on the ground. An intense high-pressure cell is bringing 90s to 100-degree heat to the western U.S. this week.

Temperatures Wednesday afternoon
Temperatures Wednesday afternoon
Oklahoma Mesonet

That heat dome is forecast to nudge eastward next week toward Minnesota and the Upper Midwest.

Upper air forecast map for
Upper-air forecast map for Labor Day
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration six to 10-day outlook reflects that upper-air pattern and strongly favors much warmer-than-average temperatures pushing into Minnesota next week.

NOAA 6 to 10-day temperature outlook 2
6 to 10-day temperature outlook.
NOAA

There are signs we may get some relief after next week’s heat, but NOAA’s week three and four forecasts also lean slightly toward warmer than average temperatures.

NOAA week 3 and 4 temperature outlook
NOAA week 3 and 4 temperature outlook.
NOAA

And NOAA’s CFS2 climate forecast system (at the top of this post) favors temperatures between about 2 and 4 degrees warmer than average for the Upper Midwest and southern Canada for the entire month of September overall.

So it looks likely we’ll see many days in the 80s and probably more 90s in September in Minnesota. And there is a better than 50-50 chance September will finish warmer than average overall.

Will Minnesota see a “second summer” in September this year?

Stay tuned.