Severe thunderstorm watch in northern Minnesota Saturday evening

Parts of Minnesota and western Wisconsin will see periods of thunderstorms Saturday evening into the overnight hours of Saturday night. Some severe weather is possible.

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a severe thunderstorm watch that continues until 11 p.m. this Saturday in the yellow shaded area of northern Minnesota:

Here are details of the watch, from the NWS Storm Prediction Center:

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 534 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 615 PM CDT Sat Sep 17 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeast Minnesota * Effective this Saturday evening from 615 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 60 mph possible SUMMARY...A few severe storms with hail up to 1.5 inches in diameter and damaging winds to 60 mph will be possible through late evening from parts of north central into northeast Minnesota. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles east northeast of Hibbing MN to 45 miles northwest of Brainerd MN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 533... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 50 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 26025.oser look at the severe weather outlook in northern Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin Saturday evening and overnight:

An isolated severe thunderstorm is possible elsewhere in Minnesota and western Wisconsin Saturday evening and overnight Saturday night.

By sunrise on Sunday, most areas will be rain-free, and quiet weather is expected during the daylight hours of Sunday.

Radar and forecast updates

You can track showers and thunderstorms on the new interactive radar on the MPR News weather page. You can pan and zoom the radar display on our site to see rain at your location, across all of Minnesota, western Wisconsin and beyond.

We have updated weather information for Minnesota and western Wisconsin on the Minnesota Public Radio News network, and on the MPR News live weather blog.

Temperature trends

Our Saturday high temp at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport was 83 degrees. That’s ten degrees warmer than our average Twin Cities high on Sept. 17.

Sunday highs will be mainly in the 70s, with a few 60s in northeastern Minnesota:

Drier air will ride in on northwesterly breezes Sunday, so afternoon dew points will be mainly in the 50s:

Sticky dew points in the 60s will linger into Sunday afternoon in southeastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin.

A peek at the week ahead shows Twin Cities metro area highs around 80 on Monday, then in the summery upper 80s Tuesday. Metro highs retreat to around 70 Wednesday, followed by lower 60s Thursday and mid 60s on Friday. It’ll feel like October later this week!

The October temperature outlook from the NWS Climatew Prediction Center shows a tendency for above-normal temps in the Upper Midwest:

One way to look at the outlook is that we’ll probably have more mild or warm days than chilly days in October. The October outlook will be updated on Sept. 30.

Fiona will become a hurricane on Sunday

Tropical Storm Fiona is expected to become a hurricane this weekend. A hurricane warning has been issued for Puerto Rico.

Here’s the latest update on Fiona, from the National Hurricane Center:

BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fiona Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022 500 PM AST Sat Sep 17 2022 ...LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE ACROSS PUERTO RICO FROM FIONA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.7N 64.6W ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM S OF ST. CROIX ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SE OF PONCE PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of France has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warnings for Guadeloupe, St. Barthelemy, and St. Martin. The government of Sint Maarten has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Sint Maarten. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * U.S. Virgin Islands * South coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano westward to Cabo Caucedo * North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano westward to Puerto Plata A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Saba and St. Eustatius * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands * South coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano westward to Cabo Caucedo * North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano westward to Puerto Plata A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * South coast of the Dominican Republic west of Cabo Caucedo to Barahona A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in the Turks and Caicos Islands and southeastern Bahamas should monitor the progress of Fiona. Watches could be required for these areas tonight or on Sunday. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fiona was located near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 64.6 West. Fiona is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. A northwestward motion is forecast to begin on Sunday and continue through Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Fiona will move south of the U.S. Virgin Islands this evening, approach Puerto Rico tonight, and move across Puerto Rico by Sunday afternoon. Fiona will then offshore of the Dominican Republic on Monday and near or to the east of the Turks and Caicos Islands on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Fiona is expected to become a hurricane before reaching the southern coast of Puerto Rico on Sunday. Additional strengthening is expected on Monday and Tuesday while Fiona moves over the southwestern Atlantic. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. NOAA buoy 42060 east-southeast of Fiona's center recently reported a sustained wind of 45 mph (72 km/h) and a gust to 51 mph (83 km/h). A station at Teagues Bay, St. Croix, recently reported a sustained wind of 36 mph (57 km/h) and a gust to 44 mph (70 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Fiona can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on Puerto Rico Sunday and are possible in the U.S. Virgin Islands tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area in the Dominican Republic Sunday night and Monday. Tropical storm conditions will continue across portions of the Leeward Islands within the warning area through this evening. Tropical storm conditions are beginning to reach the U.S. and British Virgin Islands, and will spread westward across Puerto Rico this evening and tonight and portions of the Dominican Republic late Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible across the watch area in the Dominican Republic Sunday night. RAINFALL: Fiona is forecast to produce the following rainfall: Leeward Islands and Northern Windward Islands: Additional 2 to 4 inches. British and U.S. Virgin Islands: 4 to 6 inches with local maximum of 10 inches possible. Puerto Rico: 12 to 16 inches with local maximum of 20 inches possible, particularly across eastern and southern Puerto Rico. Dominican Republic: 4 to 8 inches with local maximum of 12 inches possible, particularly on the far eastern coast. Haiti: 1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum totals of 4 inches. Turks and Caicos: 4 to 6 inches. These rains are likely to produce life-threatening flash flooding and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain, particularly in portions of Puerto Rico and the eastern Dominican Republic. Very heavy rains and flooding have occurred over portions of the Leeward Islands since Friday. A station at St. Claude Matouba Irfa, in the mountains in southwestern Guadeloupe, recently measured a 24-hour rainfall total of 19.85 inches (504.2 mm). STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas in areas of onshore winds if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Southern coast of Puerto Rico...1 to 3 ft Vieques and Culebra...1 to 3 ft U.S. Virgin Islands...1 to 2 ft Localized coastal flooding is also possible elsewhere in Puerto Rico. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds in the Dominican Republic. SURF: Swells generated by Fiona are affecting the Leeward Islands, the northern Windward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the northern coast of the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas. These conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

Here’s the forecast track of Fiona, including the cone of uncertainty for the path of Fiona’s center:

The National Hurricane Center will issue several Fiona updates Saturday night and through the next few days.

Fierce winds and huge waves for Alaska

A very intense low pressure system is bringing fierce winds and huge waves to the Alaskan coastline:

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on MPR News at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:39 p.m. Saturday and Sunday.