Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

Storms could fire near and east of the Twin Cities after midnight

A marginal risk for severe storms into Tuesday.

Severe weather risk areas
Severe weather risk areas Tuesday.
Twin Cities National Weather Service office

We’re nearly three weeks into meteorological fall, and astronomical fall begins Thursday at 8:03 p.m. with the autumnal equinox. Yet summery weather patterns linger in Minnesota this year.

Monday afternoon features a few scattered rain and thunderstorms from near Grand Forks, N.D., eastward to Red Lake Falls, Minn.

Radar image from 2 pm Monday
Radar image from 2 p.m. Monday
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, via MPR News weather

You can always check past, current, and future interactive radar with lightning data and other overlays on the MPR weather page.

Storms developing overnight into Tuesday

Our next batch of scattered strong to potentially severe storms appears likely to blow up after midnight Monday near and just east of the greater Twin Cities area.

Several short-range forecast models pick up on a weak disturbance that is likely to spark storm development after midnight.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s NAM 3 km model is one that pops a cluster of cells near the Twin Cities after midnight, then expands coverage and intensity as the ripple drifts southeast into Wisconsin toward daybreak Tuesday.

The forecast model loop below runs between 1 a.m. and 10 a.m. Tuesday:

NOAA NAM 3 km model
NOAA NAM 3 km model between 1 a.m. and 10 a.m. Tuesday
NOAA, via Tropical Tidbits

NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center lays out a marginal risk for severe storms from near the Twin Cities into much of southern Wisconsin Tuesday. There is potential for a second wave of storms to develop Tuesday afternoon and evening in roughly the same area.

Severe weather risk areas
Severe weather risk areas Tuesday.
Twin Cities National Weather Service

So you may see a lightning show after midnight into early Tuesday morning from the Twin Cities eastward into Wisconsin.