Chilly through Tuesday, then temps rebound; Shower chance today in some areas

This feels more like November than October.

Sunday afternoon highs will be in the 40s for much of the southern half of Minnesota and on into west-central Wisconsin. Northern Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin will see mainly 30s. Our Twin Cities high of 50 happened shortly after 1 a.m.; metro area temps will stay in the 40s Sunday afternoon. Our average Oct. 16 high temp is 58 degrees in the Twin Cities.

Temperature trends

Low temps early Monday will be mainly in the 20s. Most of us will see highs in the 30s Monday afternoon:

Monday wind gusts will be mostly in the 20 to 28 mph range, with gusts over 30 mph near Lake Superior:

Forecast gusts are in knots, with 22 knots equal to 25.3 mph.

Back to temperatures, Twin Cities metro area highs are projected to be in the lower 40s on Tuesday, then around 50 Wednesday followed by lower 50s Thursday and lower 60s on Friday.

Some forecast models show Twin Cities highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s next weekend. Above-normal temps may then linger into the start of the following week. The NWS Climate Prediction Center shows a strong tendency for above-normal temperatures from Oct. 21 through Oct. 25:

Rain and snow chances?

North-central and northeastern Minnesota plus northwestern Wisconsin will have the best chance of occasional rain showers this afternoon/early evening. A few flakes are also possible.

Some scattered light rain showers (and a few stray flakes) are also possible in west-central Wisconsin Sunday afternoon/evening. A brief sprinkle or flurry could move over parts of the metro area.

You can check the MPR News interactive radar display here. I should mention that the Twin Cities National Weather Service radar, which is located in Chanhassen, is out of service for a few days:

We have updated weather information for Minnesota and western Wisconsin on the Minnesota Public Radio News network, and on the MPR News live weather blog.

Heavy snow Sunday night/Monday in parts of Wisc. and Mich.

Cold air moving over the warmer waters of Lake Superior will result in lake-enhanced snow Sunday evening into Monday in parts of northern Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan.

Here are forecast snow amounts for northern Wisconsin:

Here are the forecast snow amounts Sunday evening into early Tuesday for the Upper Peninsula of Michigan:

Winter storm warnings begin Sunday evening in the areas that are expected to see the heavy snow and strong winds:

Updates on the wintry weather can be found at the Duluth NWS site and the Marquette, MI NWS site.

Fall color update

Recent strong winds have taken a lot of leaves off of our trees, but there are still some areas of great fall color in portions of Minnesota, including the Twin Cities metro area.

My wife saw plenty of fall color while strolling along Jefferson Avenue in St. Paul on Saturday.

The Minnesota Department of Natural Resources fall color report for Minnesota State Parks and Trails looks like this:

When you look at fall color maps, keep in mind that all deciduous trees are included, not just maples.

The Wisconsin fall color report can be found here.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on MPR News at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:39 p.m. Saturday and Sunday.