First significant rain in 8 weeks possible Sunday

It’s been more than seven weeks since significant rain has fallen in the Twin Cities and much of southern Minnesota.

September was the driest on record for the Twin Cities dating back to 1871. A scant 24 one-hundredths of an inch (.24) fell at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport in September.

And the period from June 1 to Sept. 30 was the fourth driest on record.

Drought impacts growing

Fast-forward to Oct. 18, and we’re still searching for needed rainfall across most of Minnesota. Extreme drought effects are everywhere around the Twin Cities into much of southwestern Minnesota.

Lake Minnetonka is at its lowest level in more than 10 years. There is currently no water flowing into Lake Minnetonka from tributaries.

Here’s more on low water levels from the Minnehaha Creek Watershed District. (MCWD)

The major stream systems that drain into Lake Minnetonka (shown on the watershed map below with blue arrows) have either dried up or are no longer flowing into the lake, meaning no water is flowing into Lake Minnetonka.

Minnehaha Creek and falls dry

Major sections of Minnehaha Creek are bone dry.

Minnehaha Falls has been dry for weeks now.

The falls were also dry in the deep drought of 2021. Here’s more detail from MCWD.

When was the last time Minnehaha Falls was dry?
The amount of water flowing over Minnehaha Falls (or the lack of water) reflects how much precipitation has fallen across the watershed. During high precipitation years, high water flows over the falls all year long. During low precipitation years, when there is a water deficit, the falls can go dry. In recent years, low precipitation has caused Minnehaha Falls to go dry in the summers of 2021, 2012, and 2009. 

Rain chance Sunday

It’s yet another dry week in most of Minnesota. But the weather maps are finally giving us a chance for merciful rainfall by Sunday.

Both the European and American models are cranking up a strong low-pressure system that could bring widespread meaningful rainfall to Minnesota from Sunday night into Monday.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Global Forecast System model lays out widespread rainfall swirling around the low Sunday night into Monday.

It’s still too early to be confident about rainfall totals, but early indications are that many areas could see an inch of rain.

Precipitation in the Twin Cities and much of southern Minnesota is running more than 9 inches below average this year. Most of that deficit has occurred since June 1.

An inch of rain won’t significantly reduce drought in Minnesota. We’ll need several inches to put a dent in the drought before the ground freezes in December to alleviate drought conditions in the soil and watersheds before next spring. The odds of that happening are not great.

Stay tuned.