Blizzards and severe thunderstorms? Minnesota may see both Thursday

Welcome to Minnesota. Here we get blizzards and severe thunderstorms. At the same time.

That could be the scenario Thursday afternoon as a powerful storm system dumps wind-driven heavy snow in northwestern Minnesota and sparks a few severe thunderstorms in the southeast.

I’ve detailed the blizzard and winter storm warnings for northern Minnesota in my earlier post-Wednesday. Now let’s take a look at the severe weather risk Thursday across southeastern Minnesota.

November severe weather

Severe weather is not common as we move deeper into November, but it’s not unprecedented. Anyone remember the Dec. 15 tornado outbreak last year?

Thursday’s low-pressure system tracks just northwest of the Twin Cities. That means the warmer unstable air mass will be ready to pop a few storms Thursday afternoon.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s FV3 model picks up on the notion of scattered strong to severe cells along the cold front sweeping eastward through southern Minnesota Thursday.

NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center lays out a marginal risk for severe storms in areas including the Twin Cities. A higher slight risk zone includes southeastern Minnesota and Wisconsin (top of post image).

...Central Plains into the Upper Midwest... A fast-moving surface low will move across the Upper-Midwest on Thursday. Unseasonably high low-level moisture will be in place across the warm sector (low to mid 60s F dewpoints). As the upper trough advances east, convection is expected to develop along and ahead of the cold front across the eastern Plains into the Upper-Midwest by early afternoon as convective temperatures are met. Mid level lapse rates should limit overall storm intensity. However, storms will be developing within a moderately strong wind field with a ~45 knot low-level jet. Therefore, some severe wind gusts may be possible with these storms, particularly those along the front whose updraft will be supported by the frontal convergence. Additionally, strong low-level speed shear may support a brief tornado threat, but this threat should be mitigated by veered surface flow and weak lapse rates. The duration of the severe weather threat will be limited by the narrow warm sector. Due to the fast storm motion, most storms will likely move east of the best low-level moisture by 22-23Z and quickly face their demise.

So keep an eye out for possible brief severe storms Thursday as the cold front sweeps through.