Periods of rain Wed.; NW Minn. sees a PM wintry mix, then heavy snow on Thursday

Due to very dry weather in September and October, many of us welcomed the periods of rain that we saw overnight.

Most of Minnesota and western Wisconsin will have periods of rain today, with a few embedded thunderstorms also possible. Colder air works into the low pressure system’s circulation later today. West-central Minnesota and parts of northwestern Minnesota could see a wintry mix, with icy roads possible this evening into Thursday and early Friday.

A winter weather advisory for areas of light freezing rain runs until noon today in western Marshall County and western Polk County of northwestern Minnesota.

A winter weather advisory starts at 6 p.m. Wednesday and runs through Thursday for Traverse and Big Stone counties of west-central Minnesota.

Snow totals over 6 inches, and even a few double-digit snow totals, will be possible in northwestern Minnesota from tonight into early Friday. A winter storm watch covers northwestern Minnesota and parts of north-central Minnesota, starting at midnight and running through Friday afternoon:

Here are details of the winter storm watch:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 801 AM CST Wed Nov 9 2022 MNZ015>017-022>024-027-028-030>032-040-120000- /O.CON.KFGF.WS.A.0010.221110T0600Z-221112T0000Z/ East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen- South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-West Otter Tail- East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant- Including the cities of Fosston, Fertile, McIntosh, Erskine, Bagley, Clearbrook, Bemidji, Mahnomen, Naytahwaush, Waubun, Alida, Ebro, Lake Itasca, Long Lost Lake, Lower Rice Lake, Roy Lake, Upper Rice Lake, Park Rapids, Detroit Lakes, Wolf Lake, Fergus Falls, Perham, New York Mills, Parkers Prairie, Henning, Battle Lake, Wadena, Menahga, Elbow Lake, Hoffman, Ashby, Herman, and Barrett 801 AM CST Wed Nov 9 2022 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy snow, mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 10 inches, with potential for small areas of higher amounts and ice accumulations of up to two tenths of an inch possible. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph. * WHERE...Portions of central, north central, northwest and west central Minnesota. * WHEN...From late tonight through Friday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Widespread blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Uncertainty remains for the areas that could receive the heaviest snow and timing and coverage of freezing rain or sleet. This will create large spread in potential impacts, and the storm track could still shift.

The changeover to snow starts Thursday in northeastern Minnesota, where a winter storm watch runs from Thursday morning through Friday night.

Here are forecast snow amounts in northeastern Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin through Saturday morning:

Southern Minnesota, the Twin Cities and west-central Wisconsin will see mainly periods of rain today and tomorrow, with a few embedded thunderstorms possible. The metro area could see a few flakes early Friday.

Parts of central and northeastern Minnesota, plus northwestern Wisconsin, could see two inches or more of precipitation from today through Friday:

Precipitation includes rain plus the water content of the snow that falls in the north.

We have updated weather information for Minnesota and western Wisconsin on the Minnesota Public Radio News network, and on the MPR News live weather blog. You can check the MPR News interactive radar display here.

Computer model depiction of the storm

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale forecast model shows shows the potential precipitation pattern from 4 a.m. Thursday to 6 a.m. Friday:

NOAA’ High-Resolution Rapid-Refresh (HRRR) model shows a similar pattern, with snow initiating a bit earlier in northwestern Minnesota:

Severe weather potential

A strong cold front moves across southern Minnesota on Thursday. It could ignite some thunderstorm in the metro area, southern Minnesota, parts of eastern Iowa and western Wisconsin. The NWS Storm Prediction Center shows a slight risk (shaded yellow) of severe weather Thursday and Thursday night in southeastern Minnesota, eastern Iowa and parts of Wisconsin:

Slight risk means that scattered severe thunderstorms are possible. An isolated severe thunderstorm will be possible in the dark-green shaded area, which includes the Twin Cities.

Temperature trends

Our Wednesday highs will range from 30s in northwestern Minnesota to 60s in southern Minnesota, the metro area and southwestern Wisconsin.

Thursday highs will happen during the morning hours in many areas, with falling temps during the afternoon. The NAM forecast models shows how the cold air spreads eastward on Thursday:

In the Twin Cities metro area, we could go from 60s late Thursday morning to 30s by late afternoon!

Friday highs will be in the 20s across the northwestern half of Minnesota, with 30s to the southeast:

We may see metro area highs in the lower 30s this weekend.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on MPR News at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:39 p.m. Saturday and Sunday