Snowy commutes on Monday; Chilly temps all week

Our Monday and Tuesday commutes will probably be slower than normal, due to snow. It doesn’t take much snow to cause slick conditions on roads.

A low pressure system and an upper level disturbance will spread snow into much of western Minnesota late Sunday evening, then that area of snow expands to cover most of Minnesota and western Wisconsin overnight Sunday night and on Monday.

Many spots in Minnesota and western Wisconsin will see snow totals between 1 and 3 inches by late Monday afternoon. The current estimate is 2 to 3 inches across much of the Twin Cities metro area. Then periods of light snow are likely Monday night into Tuesday, with another inch or so of snow. Some spots could also see some freezing drizzle at times Monday night and early Tuesday.

Lake-enhanced snow in northeastern Minnesota

Snow amounts along portions of the North Shore of Lake Superior will be in the 4 to 8 inch range from Monday into Tuesday:

The highest snow totals will be in the higher elevations of southern Lake County and southern Cook County.

There’s a winter weather advisory Monday and Tuesday for Lake County and Cook County of northeastern Minnesota:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Duluth MN 318 PM CST Sun Nov 13 2022 MNZ012-020-021-141100- /O.NEW.KDLH.WW.Y.0025.221114T1000Z-221116T0000Z/ Northern Cook and Lake-Southern Lake-Southern Cook- Including the cities of Isabella, Two Harbors, Silver Bay, and Grand Marais 318 PM CST Sun Nov 13 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 8 inches. The highest snow accumulations will be found along the higher terrain of the North Shore. * WHERE...Northern Cook and Lake, Southern Lake and Southern Cook Counties. This includes the Tribal Lands of the Grand Portage Reservation. * WHEN...From 4 AM Monday to 6 PM CST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Some additional light accumulations may linger Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road conditions can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. Road conditions can also be found at 511mn.org for Minnesota or 511wi.gov for Wisconsin.

A look at the forecast models

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale (NAM) forecast model shows the potential precipitation pattern from 10 p.m. Sunday to noon on Tuesday:

NOAA’s High-Resolution Rapid-Refresh (HRRR) forecast model shows similar snow coverage:

We have updated weather information for Minnesota and western Wisconsin on the Minnesota Public Radio News network, and on the MPR News live weather blog. You can check the MPR News interactive radar display here.

Minnesota road conditions can be found here. Wisconsin road conditions can be found here.

Temperature trends

Monday highs will be in the 20s across northern and central Minnesota, with some lower 30s in southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin:

Our average Nov. 14 high is 43 degrees in the Twin Cities, so the Monday highs are well below average.

Monday afternoon wind gusts will be mainly in the 12 to 18 mph range:

Forecast wind gusts are in knots, with 14 knots equal to 16.1 mph.

Back to temperatures, Twin Cities metro area highs are projected to reach the lower 30s Tuesday and Wednesday, followed by mid 20s Thursday and then upper teens on Friday.

Weather nugget

This probably won’t come as a surprise to most people. On average, November is the cloudiest month of the year in the Twin Cities. July is typically the sunniest month of the year.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on MPR News at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:39 p.m. Saturday and Sunday