Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

Ice and snow: Winter weather advisory south of Twin Cites

Plowable snow and ice likely south of MSP; warmer weekend

Winter weather advisory
Winter weather advisory.
Twin Cities National Weather Service office

It’s game on for more snow Thursday night into Friday across southern Minnesota.

Winter weather advisories are now flying across southern Minnesota. The advisory zone runs basically along and south of a line from Redwood Falls to Red Wing.

Including the cities of Redwood Falls, New Ulm, St Peter, Le Sueur, Faribault, Red Wing, St James, Mankato, Waseca, Owatonna, Fairmont, Blue Earth, and Albert Lea

244 PM CST Wed Dec 7 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THURSDAY TO 9 AM CST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches and ice accumulations of up to a tenth of an inch.

* WHERE...Portions of south central, southeast and southwest Minnesota.

* WHEN...From 3 PM Thursday to 9 AM CST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions may impact the Thursday evening and Friday morning commutes, especially along the Interstate 90 and 35 corridors.

Expect snow to break out in southwestern Minnesota Thursday evening after about 6 p.m. It should reach the Twin Cities around or after midnight.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Global Forecast System tracks the snow and rain zones between 6 p.m. Thursday and noon Friday.

NOAA GFS model Friday
NOAA GFS model between 6 p.m. Thursday and noon Friday
NOAA, via Tropical Tidbits

The heaviest snow zone favors southern Minnesota. The Twin Cities is most likely to see just light snow between about 1 a.m. and 8 a.m. Friday, but that could mess with morning rush hours Friday.

Snowfall accumulations around an inch look most likely for the Twin Cities. Several inches of snow are likely across southern Minnesota.

NOAA’s GFS model paints some hefty snowfall totals between about 3 and 6-plus inches across southern Minnesota’s Interstate 90 corridor cities. This model and others also show a sharp cutoff in the Twin Cities region, with no snow in the northern part of the metro area to around an inch in the central part and 2 inches or more south.

NOAA GFS snowfall output
NOAA GFS snowfall output through Friday
NOAA, via Tropical Tidbits

Any shift north or south in the storm track will change snowfall across the Twin Cities accordingly.

Milder days ahead

Temperatures will hover in the upper 20s to low 30s in southern Minnesota Thursday and Friday.

A milder air mass filters in as we move through the upcoming weekend. Highs will be at or above freezing across most of Minnesota Saturday afternoon.

Forecast high temperatures Saturday
Forecast high temperatures Saturday
NOAA

And temperatures could get close to 40 degrees in the Twin Cities and southern Minnesota by Sunday and Monday.

Sloppy storm next week?

Multiple forecast models crank up a big, wet, warm, slow-moving storm cross Minnesota next week. The temperature profile with this system will be critical to the precipitation type. Temperatures look likely to be close to freezing, so precipitation could be a mix of snow, ice and rain.

Check out the Canadian model next week. Don’t look at this loop for specifics this far out, but it gives you the idea of a big, sloppy, slow-moving system lumbering through between next Monday evening and Thursday morning.

Canadian model Saturday
Canadian model next Monday into Thursday
Environment Canada, via Tropical Tidbits

Depending on temperature and storm track, a system like this could produce a slushy wet nuisance mix of precipitation. Or if it’s cold enough, it could produce a pile of snow.

Stay tuned.