Winter storm will slow Minnesota commutes on Tuesday and Wednesday

Parts of southwestern Minnesota will have areas of dense fog Sunday night into early Monday. Patchy fog is also possible elsewhere in Minnesota into Monday morning.

The daylight hours of Monday look fairly quiet in most areas, but southwestern Minnesota could see some patchy drizzle/freezing drizzle at times. The main weather event rolls into Minnesota Monday night and Tuesday.

Winter storm update

Computer models show a low pressure system becoming more organized over Colorado Monday evening, then tracking northeastward Monday night, Tuesday and Wednesday. It’ll spread plenty of moist air over the Upper Midwest.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Global Forecast System (GFS) model shows the potential precipitation pattern from 6 p.m. Monday to 6 p.m. Wednesday:

Heavy snow (6+ inches) will be possible Tuesday into Wednesday in the colder air over western Minnesota and central and northern Minnesota.  Some forecast models show that double-digit totals will be possible in the heaviest snow bands. Freezing rain could also be a problem at times from southwestern and west-central Minnesota through central Minnesota and into northeastern Minnesota. Periods of light snow will continue in many areas on Thursday, as the low pressure system moves slowly to the east.

The Twin Cities metro area, southeastern Minnesota and west-central Wisconsin will be in the milder air to start, so those areas could start with a wintry mix Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night (with light freezing rain possibly included in that mix at times), then mainly rain for awhile on Wednesday followed by a wintry mix and then periods of snow Wednesday night into Thursday.  The storm track and temperature profile will become more certain as we get closer to Tuesday and Wednesday. A shift in the track and slightly cooler temps would give the metro area more hours of snow and fewer hours of rain or a wintry mix Tuesday into Wednesday.

Heavy snow and freezing rain potential

Freezing rain could spread across portions of Minnesota late Monday night and Tuesday.

Snow totals of 6 inches or more are possible in some areas Tuesday and Tuesday night:

Northern Minnesota will see mainly snow, with some icing also possible. Here are potential snow totals in the northwest, via the Grand Forks NWS office:

The Duluth NWS office depicts snow potential for northeastern Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin:

Periods of light snow are expected on Thursday and Thursday night as the low pressure system drifts slowly eastward:

Winter storm watches

A winter storm watch begins Monday evening for portions of northwestern and west-central Minnesota:

Here are details of that watch:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 204 PM CST Sun Dec 11 2022 MNZ001>004-007-029-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049- 052>054-142015- /O.EXT.KFGF.WS.A.0011.221213T0000Z-221215T0900Z/ West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-West Marshall-Wilkin-Towner- Cavalier-Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh-Eddy-Nelson- Grand Forks-Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent- Richland-Western Walsh- Including the cities of Crookston, East Grand Forks, Ada, Twin Valley, Halstad, Moorhead, Hallock, Karlstad, Lancaster, Warren, Stephen, Argyle, Breckenridge, Cando, Langdon, Cavalier, Walhalla, Drayton, Pembina, Neche, St. Thomas, Fort Totten, Maddock, Leeds, Minnewaukan, Devils Lake, Grafton, Park River, New Rockford, Lakota, Mcville, Aneta, Tolna, Grand Forks, Cooperstown, Finley, Hope, Mayville, Hillsboro, Hatton, Portland, Valley City, Fargo, Lisbon, Enderlin, Gwinner, Milnor, Forman, Rutland, Wahpeton, Edinburg, Adams, and Lankin 204 PM CST Sun Dec 11 2022 ...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation possible at times, especially Monday night into Tuesday morning. Heavy snow possible at times, mainly Tuesday into Tuesday night. Total snow accumulations of over 6 inches and ice accumulations of a light glaze to around 0.10 to 0.20 inches possible. Blowing and drifting snow is also possible, especially once winds turn to the north-northeast later Wednesday into Wednesday night. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph. * WHERE...Eastern North Dakota and the Red River Valley counties of Minnesota. * WHEN...From Monday evening through late Wednesday night. * IMPACTS...This looks to be a long duration event. Travel could be very difficult.

A winter storm watch begins late Monday night in southwestern Minnesota and begins Tuesday morning in central Minnesota:

Here are details of the winter storm watch in central Minnesota:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1209 PM CST Sun Dec 11 2022 MNZ041>045-049-050-120215- /O.CON.KMPX.WS.A.0004.221213T1200Z-221214T1200Z/ Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stearns-Benton- Including the cities of Alexandria, Long Prairie, Little Falls, Princeton, Mora, St Cloud, and Sauk Rapids 1209 PM CST Sun Dec 11 2022 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Heavy snow mixed with freezing rain possible. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 6 inches and ice accumulations of a light glaze possible. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph. * WHERE...Portions of central, east central and west central Minnesota. * WHEN...From Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Storm Watch means there is a potential for significant snow, sleet, or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts.

A winter storm watch begins Tuesday evening in northeastern Minnesota:

Here are details of the winter storm watch in northeastern Minnesota:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Duluth MN 228 PM CST Sun Dec 11 2022 MNZ012-019>021-026-120830- /O.CON.KDLH.WS.A.0013.221214T0000Z-221215T1200Z/ Northern Cook and Lake-Central St. Louis-Southern Lake- Southern Cook-South Itasca- Including the cities of Isabella, Hibbing, Two Harbors, Silver Bay, Grand Marais, and Grand Rapids 228 PM CST Sun Dec 11 2022 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 7 inches and ice accumulations of a light glaze possible. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph. * WHERE...Northern Cook and Lake, Central St. Louis, Southern Lake, Southern Cook and South Itasca Counties. This includes the Tribal Lands of the Bois Forte Band, Lake Vermilion area and the Grand Portage Reservation. * WHEN...From Tuesday evening through late Wednesday night. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

Parts of the winter storm watch areas could be converted to warnings or advisories as we get closer to the winter storm start time. There may also be counties added to the winter storm watch.

You can find updated weather information for Minnesota and western Wisconsin on the Minnesota Public Radio News network, and on the MPR News live weather blog.

Temperature trends

Monday highs will be mainly in the 30s:

Monday afternoon wind chill temps will be in the teens to the west, with 20s in the east:

Back to high temperatures, Twin Cities metro area highs are projected to reach the mid to upper 30s on Tuesday, followed by upper 30s Wednesday then mid 30s Thursday and upper 20s on Friday.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on MPR News at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:39 p.m. Saturday and Sunday.