Blizzard warning: 1-2 feet of snow along North Shore through Thursday

Minnesota’s massive wintry storm is unfolding pretty much as expected so far this Tuesday afternoon. It’s mostly rain in the Twin Cities, ice in southwestern Minnesota and mixed wintry precipitation across most of western and central Minnesota.

Check out the nearly 1 inch (0.88) of ice recorded Tuesday in Pipestone!

You can check out the sequence of Updraft posts to get the bigger storm picture.

Let’s focus for a minute on some of the most extreme impacts of this storm. Specifically, let’s look at what looks like some prolific snowfall totals and high winds along the North Shore this week.

North Shore blizzard warning

You don’t often see posted blizzard warnings lasting for 48 hours. But the long duration of pounding snow and winds off Lake Superior will deliver sustained snow bursts along the North Shore from Tuesday evening through most of Thursday.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s NAM 3 km model shows persistent easterly flow around the storm that will set up a sustained fetch across Lake Superior. That will trigger both bands of system snow and additional lake-effect snow plumes.

Then, as the intense snow squalls roll inland up the hill, orographic effects of higher terrain will enhance snowfall rates and totals even more.

This looks like a sustained meteorological assault on the North Shore. Snowfall rates could reach 1 to 3 inches per hour at times.

The blizzard warning along most of the North Shore runs from 6 p.m Tuesday to 6 p.m. Thursday.

Including the cities of Two Harbors, Silver Bay, and Grand Marais

1056 AM CST Tue Dec 13 2022

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations of 11 to 21 inches and ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph.

* WHERE...Southern Lake and Southern Cook Counties. This includes the Tribal Lands of the Grand Portage Reservation. * WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Patchy blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Heavy snowfall combined with strong winds will cause snow loading on trees and powerlines. This will likely cause power outages.

High winds, too

All that snow will be driven ashore by winds gusts to around 45 mph. Gusts along the North Shore will hit 30 mph for several hours Wednesday.

High-end snow blitz?

It should be noted that the National Weather Service forecast map of snowfall total runs only through 6 p.m. Thursday.

But additional snowfall totals are likely into Saturday.

This is one of those extreme situations where I think there’s a chance for much higher-end snowfall totals along the North Shore by Sunday. The prolonged lake-effect wind trajectories could pump bands of heavy snow into the area into this weekend.

A few forecast models crank out 3 or more feet of snow locally by Sunday. Here’s the Canadian model (Kuchera) snowfall output through Saturday.

It should be noted that NOAA’s Global Forecast System model pumps out even higher totals to 40 inches by Sunday. That’s probably overdone, but you get the idea that we’ll likely be counting snowfall by the foot along the North Shore by this weekend.

Buckle up!