Dangerous wind chills, blizzard conditions muscle into Minnesota

A strong low-pressure system will cause our winds to ramp up Thursday afternoon and the winds will stay strong through Friday and into early Saturday.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale (NAM) forecast model shows the pressure pattern and the potential snowfall pattern from 5 p.m. Thursday to 5 p.m. Saturday:

The isobars are close together on the forecast loop, so there are big pressure differences over short distances, giving us very strong winds. The winds will decrease late Saturday into Sunday.

Wind gust forecast

Winds will gust between 40 and 50 mph in some areas the next few days. Here’s the forecast:

The strong winds will lead to severely reduced visibilities and dangerous wind chills. Southwestern Minnesota is starting to feel it.

Blizzard warnings

You don’t need to have falling snow to prompt a blizzard warning. Here’s the National Weather Service definition of blizzard:

Blizzard: Blowing and/or falling snow with winds of at least 35 mph, reducing visibilities to a quarter of a mile or less for at least three hours.

The powdery snow from Wednesday’s snow will be blowing around for many hours, creating ground-blizzard conditions in many areas.

A blizzard warning is already in effect for much of southwestern and south-central Minnesota:

A wind chill advisory covers central Minnesota, the Twin Cities and west-central Wisconsin Thursday afternoon.

The blizzard warning expands to include the southern part of the Twin Cities metro area and southeastern Minnesota Thursday evening and it will continue in all the red-shaded areas until 6 a.m. Saturday:

A blizzard warning has been added to parts of west-central and southwestern Wisconsin starting at 6 a.m. Friday. A blizzard warning begins at 6 p.m. Thursday in parts of northeastern Minnesota.

Blizzard warnings with various start times are shaded red on this map:

Here are details of the blizzard warnings:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1139 AM CST Thu Dec 22 2022 ...GROUND BLIZZARD AND DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY... ...TRAVEL THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING COULD BE IMPOSSIBLE AND LIFE-THREATENING... .Other than light flurries, snow has ended across the area. The main concern transitions to blowing snow which has already picked up in western Minnesota, eventually spreading over to all portions of the coverage area by Friday morning. In addition, arctic air with dangerously cold wind chills will spread across the region. This event could be life- threatening if you are stranded with wind chills in the 30 below to 45 below zero range. Please avoid traveling. In addition, heavy snow remaining on trees from the last storm and strong winds arriving could result in tree damage and power outages as temperatures drop below zero. A Blizzard Warning goes into effect Thursday afternoon and evening in areas west of the Mississippi River, and in portions of western Wisconsin beginning Friday morning as winds increase. MNZ042-049-059-068-069-077-230145- /O.CON.KMPX.BZ.W.0003.221223T0000Z-221224T1200Z/ /O.CON.KMPX.WC.W.0005.221223T0000Z-221224T1800Z/ /O.CON.KMPX.WC.Y.0022.000000T0000Z-221223T0000Z/ Todd-Stearns-Wright-Carver-Scott-Rice- Including the cities of Long Prairie, St Cloud, Monticello, Chanhassen, Chaska, Victoria, Shakopee, and Faribault 1139 AM CST Thu Dec 22 2022 ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING... ...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST SATURDAY... ...WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST SATURDAY... * WHAT...For the Blizzard Warning, blizzard conditions expected. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph. For the Wind Chill Warning, dangerously cold wind chills expected. Wind chills as low as 40 below zero. For the Wind Chill Advisory, very cold wind chills expected. Wind chills as low as 40 below zero. * WHERE...Todd, Stearns and Wright Counties. * WHEN...For the Blizzard Warning, from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Saturday. For the Wind Chill Warning, from 6 PM this evening to noon CST Saturday. For the Wind Chill Advisory, until 6 PM CST this evening. * IMPACTS...Widespread blowing snow with whiteout conditions this evening through Friday night will make travel nearly impossible. The dangerously cold wind chills could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 10 minutes. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Please avoid travel. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Travel should be restricted to emergencies only. If you must travel, have a winter survival kit with you with warm clothes and a charged cell phone. Tell someone where you are going, and when you expect to arrive. If you get stranded, stay with your vehicle. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. Road conditions can also be found at 511mn.org for Minnesota or 511wi.gov for Wisconsin.

You can find updated weather information for Minnesota and western Wisconsin on the Minnesota Public Radio News network, and on the MPR News live weather blog.

Dangerous wind chills

Here are wind chill forecasts for the next few days:

The National Weather Service has info on recommended items for a winter survival kit if you have to travel in dangerously cold weather.

Weekend temps

Our average Dec. 24 high temp in the Twin Cities is 26 degrees. Saturday highs will be in the single digits in the metro area and much of eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin:

Western Minnesota will have subzero highs on Saturday.

Low temperatures late Saturday night and early Sunday morning will be in the single digits below zero to teens below zero:

Sunday highs will be a few degrees above zero:

The lighter winds will give us milder wind chill temps on Sunday compared to Saturday.

Many areas will have a snow-free weekend.

Snow totals from around Minnesota

The snowfall total at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport from Wednesday into early Thursday was 8.1 inches:

Here’s the map of snowfall reports from the storm:

You can find snowfall reports here, and can pan and zoom the map at that link for more details:

Click on any data point at that linked site for the exact location and time of the snow measurement.

Some areas near Lutsen and Tofte in northeastern Minnesota had around one foot of new snow from this storm.

Parts of Cook County of northeastern Minnesota could see a bit of light snow Thursday afternoon.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on MPR News at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:39 p.m. Saturday and Sunday.