Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

Mild weather continues; wintry mix possible late Wednesday, Thursday

Another storm system looks to develop early next week

6-10 day precip
6-10 day precipitation outlook remains active with above-normal precipitation for most of Minnesota.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Center

Wednesday will be mild with 30s nearly statewide. The next round of moisture will be a wintry mix of freezing drizzle, light rain and snow late Wednesday into Thursday evening.

Very warm air overhead

The air mass over Minnesota is quite mild for the time of year. While the surface temperatures are not reaching record levels in the 40s, the air aloft, at about 3,400 feet above the ground is in the 99th percentile.

850 T record
Forecast temperatures aloft at the 850 millibar pressure level (about 3,400 feet up) Tuesday night showing percentile / rankings
Tomer Burg, PolarWx.com

Meteorologists use those temperatures aloft in forecasting surface temperatures. As the sun warms the ground, the air above it is warmed and that layer above it, etc. until the air mixes to a depth that can range from a few hundred feet to as much as 6,000 to 7,000 feet in the summer with sunny skies and breezy conditions.

A low sun angle and snow cover, along with cloud cover, limits this mixing depth in winter. While we don’t measure temperature records aloft, the readings aloft would likely be close to record levels. With the clouds and snow cover, we’re settling for highs in the 30s which are still well above normal.

wed highs 9a
Forecast high temperatures Wednesday
National Weather Service

A warmer, moist air mass moving over colder surface air locks us into cloud cover this time of year and can create drizzle. We’ll see that possibility of patchy drizzle and even freezing drizzle where surface temperatures are below freezing Wednesday into early Thursday.

Forecast precipitation 1am THU
Forecast weather conditions for 1 a.m. Thursday include possible light rain and freezing drizzle
National Weather Service

An active pattern remains in place

Our next round of more significant precipitation develops as a mix of light freezing rain early Thursday with a mix of rain and snow showers in the afternoon into the overnight hours Thursday night.

thu precip 9a
Forecast precipitation 4 a.m. Thursday through 1 a.m. Friday
NOAA, via Pivotal Weather

It will be a narrow swath of snowfall that develops.

snowfall MN 2
Forecast snowfall Thursday into Friday
National Weather Service

While most of us will see under 1 inch, some models are hinting at a possible narrow swath of 2 or 3 inches for some places in a southwest-to-northeast axis across the state.

snow models
Six different computer model scenarios for potential snowfall late Thursday
NOAA, via Pivotal Weather

Another storm system looks to develop early next week with rain and snow possible Monday into Tuesday.

Mon-Tue storm
Forecast precipitation 6 a.m. Monday through 1 a.m. Wednesday
NOAA Global Forecast System model, via Pivotal Weather

There are quite different model tracks at this point that will be the difference between mostly rain or mostly snow for southern Minnesota.

monday model compare
Comparison of NOAA Global Forecast System and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts models for late Monday showing two very different precipitation outcomes.
NOAA and ECMWF, via Pivotal Weather

While the pattern has switched to a much milder one, it’s certainly turning out to be no less active.