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Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News
Paul Huttner

What January? Minnesota rain, Iowa tornadoes, and a sloppy winter storm later this week

Our super warm January is producing an active and highly unusual weather pattern.

Temperature departure from average this month
Temperature departure from average this month.
Midwest Regional Climate Center

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Welcome to the January of the future, Minnesota.

We’re halfway through January and meteorological winter. The first half of January is running off the charts for warmth. Temperatures are running between 6 and 12 degrees warmer than average across most of Minnesota so far.

Here are some select locations around our region with January temperatures compared to average so far this month.

  • Grand Forks, ND +3.3 degrees

  • Twin Cities +6.2 degrees

  • Rochester +7.3 degrees

  • Duluth +9.4 degrees

  • International Falls +12.0 degrees

Our MLK Day rain event is highly unusual for mid-Janaury. As of this post, the Twin Cities has picked up a third of an inch of rainfall. Rain will change to wet slushy snow tonight with the most significant accumulations across northeast Minnesota.

Snowfall projection for Minnesota 2
Snowfall projection for Minnesota through Tuesday.
NOAA

Iowa tornoades

January 16 also brings unusual out-of-season tornadoes to central Iowa.

At least 4 preliminary tornado reports came in from near I-90 east of Des Moines.

Tornado reports
Tornado reports on January 16, 2023.
NOAA Storm Prediction Center

Major wet snow event Thursday?

All signs point to another heavy wet snow event for southern Minnesota late Wednesday through Thursday. The Canadian and European models paint heavy snow bands across southeast Minnesota into Wisconsin with the Twin Cities on the edge of heavier snowfall.

Here’s the Canadian model loop.

NOAA GFS model
NOAA GFS model between 6 pm Wednesday and 6 pm Thursday.
NOAA via tropical tidbits

The highest probability for 6” to 12” snowfall totals favors southeast Minnesota at this point. If you live in or are planning to travel in Nebraska, Iowa, southeast Minnesota, and Wisconsin you are likely to get heavy snow by Thursday.

Snowfall projections
Heavy snowfall probabilities.
Twin Cities National Weather Service

Any further storm track shift north would potentially increase snowfall totals for the Twin Cities area. Any shift south would reduce totals. This looks like another wetter-than-average January storm. January snows are historically dry in Minnesota.

Stay tuned.