Heavy snow approaches southern MN; tough Twin Cities commute Thursday
5-10 inches likely in southern MN, 2-6 in the Twin Cities
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All systems are go for the next significant winter storm in Minnesota. This system will focus the heaviest snowfall across southern Minnesota.
Here are some key forecast points on our inbound storm system:
A winter storm warning covers most of southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin.
A winter weather advisory includes the Twin Cities area.
Snow begins across southern Minnesota Wednesday evening.
Snow likely moves into the greater Twin Cities around the midnight hour.
The heaviest snowfall rates will occur between midnight Wednesday to about 8 a.m. Thursday.
Thursday morning’s rush hour will be challenging.
The system
Here’s the big picture look at our inbound weather system. The low-pressure center will track toward Chicago. Snow will cover our region overnight into Thursday, then taper off from west to east Thursday afternoon.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s NAM 3 km model seems to have a good handle on the progression of the snow zone:
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This storm is already dumping snow at rates of an inch an hour across parts of Nebraska and South Dakota.
Snowfall totals
In Minnesota, the heaviest snow will fall along the Interstate 90 corridor. About 5 to 10 inches are likely by late Thursday in southern Minnesota.
The Twin Cities will ride the northern edge of the heavier snowfall bands with this system, producing a range across the Twin Cities, with about 2 inches north and closer to 5 or 6 inches south. A couple of model runs Wednesday suggest more of the Twin Cities could end up on the lower end of that range.
Lesser snowfall totals will occur in central and northeastern Minnesota. Here’s the latest snowfall projection for Minnesota from NOAA’s forecast model blend:
Weekend looks good; drier next week
This is the sixth significant system to affect our region in the past seven weeks. That’s a lot of driving and shoveling hassles, but a great way to bust a drought.
The Twin Cities has recorded more then 5 inches of liquid equivalent moisture since Nov. 1. That’s erased about half of our precipitation deficit of 10 inches going into this winter.
We finally dry out for most of next week. Our weekend forecast looks great to get out and play in the snow. Expect a mix of sun and clouds and highs mostly in the 20s into next week.
There are signs of colder air again as we move into late January. NOAA’s outlooks favor below-average temperatures later this month for Minnesota.
