Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

Sloppy rain-snow mix into Monday night

Some slushy accumulations from the Twin Cities northward

NOAA NAM 3 km model
NOAA NAM 3 km model between 3 pm Monday and midnight Tuesday.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, via Tropical Tidbits

Get ready for a quick-hitting, sloppy rain and snow system into Monday evening, Minnesota.

This won’t go down as one of the bigger winter weather events in Minnesota, but it will make for some sloppy driving conditions this evening.

A weak low-pressure wave drifts quickly eastward through Minnesota through tonight. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s NAM 3 km model seems to have a pretty good handle on the mixed precipitation as it slides eastward through our region between late afternoon and midnight.

The loop above runs between 3 pm Monday and midnight Tuesday.

Rain-snow line nearby

We’ve thawed out at the surface with above-freeing temperatures as far north as International Falls and Roseau Monday afternoon. And check out the notable early-season warmth in the central Plains with highs in the 60s across Missouri Monday!

Forecast high temperatures Wednesday
Forecast high temperatures Monday
NOAA

We’ve hit 35 degrees in the Twin Cities as of this post time.

Temperatures at MSP Airport
Temperatures at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport Monday
NOAA / Federal Aviation Administration

Temperatures above ground level are hovering around the freezing mark. That will produce a sloppy rain and snow mix, with a little icy precipitation possible in some areas.

precip types
A 3D view of how different air masses create different precipitation types on the edge of warm and cold air in a wintry system
National Weather Service

Snowfall accumulations

There will be some significant snowfall accumulations especially north of the Twin Cities. Many forecast models suggest 1 to 3 sloppy inches across parts of central and northeastern Minnesota into northwestern Wisconsin.

NOAA NAM 3 km model snowfall output
NOAA North American Mesoscale Forecast System 3 km model snowfall output
NOAA, via Pivotal Weather

A couple of forecast models suggest we will also see some slushy accumulations in the Twin Cities through Monday evening. I could see an inch or two in parts of the Twin Cities by this evening, with the northern Twin Cities seeing the best chance for a sloppy 2 to 3 inches.

Mild week ahead

Temperatures will remain mild this week. Highs in the 30s will cover most of Minnesota this week.

Forecast high temperatures Wednesday 2
Forecast high temperatures Wednesday
NOAA

We’ll cool off a bit Friday, but another pulse of mild air will push highs back into the upper 30s again by Sunday. And check out more springlike temperatures into the 50s building not too far to our south in Iowa and Missouri.

Forecast high temperatures Sunday
Forecast high temperatures Sunday
NOAA

The average high and low temperatures for the Twin Cities are 26 and 10 degrees this week. We’ll run about 10 degrees above average for much of this week.