Blizzard warnings widen into Twin Cities metro; travel may be 'impossible'
Heaviest snow Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning
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Welcome to phase 1 of our two-act storm system.
The first wave of snowfall has been light to moderate across most of central and southern Minnesota so far. And this first part of the storm features less wind than we’ll see in phase 2.
The latest forecast models I’m looking at early this Tuesday evening favor between about 3 and 7 inches of snowfall across most of the southern half of Minnesota by 6 a.m. Wednesday.
Here’s the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s High-Resolution Rapid Refresh model:
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Blizzard warnings expanded
The biggest change Tuesday afternoon is the expansion of blizzard warnings into the south and western Twin Cities counties for Wednesday and Thursday.
Specifically, Wright, Carver and Scott Counties have been added to the blizzard warning zone.
Wright-Carver-Scott- Including the cities of Monticello, Chanhassen, Chaska, Victoria, and Shakopee
230 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2023
...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY...
...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY...
* WHAT...For the Winter Storm Warning, heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 7 inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. For the Blizzard Warning, blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations of 10 to 13 inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.
* WHERE...Wright, Carver and Scott Counties.
* WHEN...For the Winter Storm Warning, until noon CST Wednesday. For the Blizzard Warning, from noon Wednesday to 6 PM CST Thursday.
* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.
Check out the general blizzard warning language from the Twin Cities National Weather Service. They’re not pulling any weather punches here.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
230 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2023
...HISTORIC WINTER STORM SHOULD LEAD TO IMPOSSIBLE TRAVEL BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY...
Two primary rounds of snow are expected. The first will occur this afternoon through tonight, moving from west to east. Accumulations of 4 to 8 inches are expected with round one.
Round two is more widespread, and will begin Wednesday afternoon and continue into Thursday with an additional 8 to 18 inches expected.
Total snow accumulations will range from 14 to 24 inches, with the best chance for the higher end totals along a west to east axis from west central Minnesota through east central Minnesota and into west central Wisconsin.
This is expected to reach the top 5 heaviest snow storms for many location. The worst conditions will be Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning, and a Blizzard Warning is in effect for many counties in western and central Minnesota during this time frame.
Heavy snow will combine with northeast wind gusts of 35 mph across the region, to around 45 mph in western and central Minnesota. This will lead to significant blowing and drifting snow with whiteout conditions in open areas. Some drifts may be several feet deep, making travel nearly impossible.
Bracing for Wednesday afternoon
The overall storm picture remains the same. The heaviest barrage of snow and wind arrives Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning. Overall snowfall totals still look likely to top 1 foot and run up to 2 feet across a wide swath of southern Minnesota.
Take it easy out there, Minnesota.