A pleasant Sunday; Periods of rain, ice and snow late Sunday night and Monday

We’ll enjoy beautiful winter weather Sunday with plenty of sunshine. Afternoon highs will reach the 30s across most of Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Some spots in far northwestern and northeastern Minnesota will have highs in the 20s.

Rain, ice and snow are headed our way

A low pressure system will spread precipitation into southern, central and eastern Minnesota and much of Wisconsin overnight Sunday night, with precipitation continuing on Monday.

The precipitation will begin as rain in many areas, with freezing rain at locations that have cold enough surface temperatures. Some locations will see a mix of rain, freezing rain and snow. Periods of rain, freezing rain and snow Monday morning are expected to transition to mainly snow as we go through Monday afternoon.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale (NAM) forecast model shows the potential precipitation pattern from 9 p.m. Sunday to 9 p.m. Monday:

Where freezing rain is most likely

Here’s the potential for periods of freezing rain overnight and into Monday:

Here’s the ice (freezing rain) potential in northeastern Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin:

How much snow?

Parts of northeastern Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin are likely to see several inches of snow Monday into Monday evening:

Here are potential snow totals elsewhere in Minnesota and western Wisconsin:

Warnings, advisories and watches

Winter storm warnings for ice (freezing rain) begin at midnight Sunday night and continue until 6 p.m. Monday in several Wisconsin counties. Winter weather advisories are posted for portions of central Minnesota and for parts of the north and east metro:

Here’s an overview of the storm, plus details of the advisories in central Minnesota and parts of the metro area:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 403 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2023 ...ICY PRECIPITATION LIKELY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY... .A strong storm system will bring widespread precipitation to central and southern Minnesota into western Wisconsin late tonight through most of Monday. The precipitation will start out as a mix of rain and freezing rain late tonight, with the icy precipitation most likely north of a line from Appleton to Anoka MN to Durand WI. The precipitation will gradually mix with rain and snow late Monday morning then change over to all snow Monday afternoon and evening before ending. The highest ice amounts are expected in western Wisconsin, where around one quarter inch of ice is likely. Going westward across central Minnesota, ice accumulations may reach one to two tenths of an inch. A Winter Storm Warning is in place for much of western Wisconsin while a Winter Weather Advisory is in place for central Minnesota north of a line from Appleton to Litchfield to Anoka to Stillwater, continuing through Pierce and Pepin counties in western Wisconsin. At this time, freezing rain is not expected inside or south of the Interstate 694 and 494 loop around the Twin Cities. MNZ041>045-048>053-261900- /O.NEW.KMPX.WW.Y.0010.230227T0600Z-230228T0000Z/ Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Pope-Stearns-Benton- Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago- Including the cities of Alexandria, Long Prairie, Little Falls, Princeton, Mora, Glenwood, St Cloud, Sauk Rapids, Elk River, Cambridge, and Center City 403 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2023 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST MONDAY... * WHAT...Freezing rain, occasionally mixed with snow. Total snow accumulations of up to one inch and ice accumulations of between one and two tenths of an inch. * WHERE...Portions of central, east central and west central Minnesota. * WHEN...From midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Monday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. Road conditions can also be found at 511mn.org for Minnesota or 511wi.gov for Wisconsin.

There’s a lower chance of freezing rain in the central and southern parts of the Twin Cities metro, so there are no advisories for those areas.

Here are details of the winter storm warning for ice plus some snow that begins at midnight in several western Wisconsin counties:

WIZ014-023-025-028-261900- /O.UPG.KMPX.WS.A.0004.230227T0600Z-230227T1500Z/ /O.NEW.KMPX.WS.W.0005.230227T0600Z-230228T0000Z/ Polk-St. Croix-Dunn-Eau Claire- Including the cities of Osceola, Hudson, Menomonie, and Eau Claire 403 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2023 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST MONDAY... * WHAT...Freezing rain, occasionally mixed with snow. Total snow accumulations of up to two inches and ice accumulations of around one quarter inch. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph. * WHERE...Polk, St. Croix, Dunn and Eau Claire Counties. * WHEN...From midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Monday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions may impact the Monday morning and evening commutes. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. Road conditions can also be found at 511mn.org for Minnesota or 511wi.gov for Wisconsin.

Winter storm watches for snow and ice have been posted for late Sunday night and Monday for the southern part of Aitkin County plus Pine County and much of northwestern Wisconsin. Cook County and Lake County of northeastern Minnesota are in a winter storm watch Monday and Monday evening for snow and ice.

You can find updated weather information for Minnesota and western Wisconsin on the Minnesota Public Radio News network, and on the MPR News live weather blog.

Temperature trends

The average Twin Cities high temperature is 33 degrees this time of year. Metro area highs are expected to reach the upper 30s on Monday.

Most of Minnesota will have Monday highs in the 30s:

There’ll be a few upper 20s in parts of northeastern Minnesota.

Tuesday highs will reach the 30s in most areas, with 20s in west-central and northwestern Minnesota:

Twin Cities metro area highs are projected to reach the mid 30s Tuesday, then around 30 degrees on Wednesday, followed by highs in the upper 20s Thursday and lower 30s on Friday.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on MPR News at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:39 p.m. Saturday and Sunday.