Snow overnight into Wednesday, heaviest in central Minnesota
Likely 1-3 inches for Twin Cities, 3-7 across central Minnesota
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Our active winter weather pattern continues into the first day of meteorological spring.
Minnesotans know March is more winter than spring at this latitude. We average 10.2 inches of snow in the Twin Cities in March. Duluth averages 12.8 inches of fresh snow in March.
March comes in a little more lion than lamb this year.
The system
This moderate level low-pressure system will track from around Rapid City, S.D., at 6 p.m. Tuesday to the Twin Cities around noon Wednesday.
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It’s snowing in parts of western Minnesota as of this post. Snow showers will likely increase in the Twin Cities around midnight, with a more vigorous wave into Wednesday morning.
Look for a couple of bands of intermittent snow overnight, with the possibility of a pretty good snow burst hitting the Twin Cities area around the morning rush hours. The steadier, heavier snow favors central Minnesota from Moorhead through Alexandria, St, Cloud, Brainerd, Lake Mille Lacs, Hinckley, and Duluth.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s latest 18Z NAM 3 km model output seems logical to me. The forecast loop below runs between 6 p.m. Tuesday and 6 p.m. Wednesday.
Snowfall totals
I still like an overall snowfall range of 1 to 3 inches across the Twin Cities from south (lighter) to north. (heavier) Steadier and heavier snow will fall across central Minnesota. There could be 7 or more inches in western Minnesota through about Alexandria.
Here’s a wider look at likely snowfall totals around Minnesota. We’ll see less snow in the south and north. This system will affect the middle third of Minnesota the most. We’re a tall state.
Winter storm warnings and advisories
Winter storm warnings cover parts of western Minnesota into Wednesday.
Including the cities of Moorhead, Breckenridge, Valley City, Fargo, Lisbon, Enderlin, Gwinner, Milnor, Forman, Rutland, and Wahpeton
210 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2023 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM CST WEDNESDAY...
* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 9 inches, with locally higher amounts possible. Not all areas will receive the higher end amounts, and there will be large gradients across individual counties. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.
* WHERE...Portions of west central Minnesota and southeast North Dakota. * WHEN...Until 3 PM CST Wednesday.
* IMPACTS...Travel will be difficult. Heavy falling snow and blowing snow will significantly reduce the visibility. The hazardous conditions will impact the Wednesday morning commute.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will spread over the area from southwest to northeast and may not reach Fargo until near 6 pm. The heaviest rates of snowfall will be tonight.
Winter weather advisories run as far south as Willmar, in west-central Minnesota, and the Twin Cities.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
108 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2023
...SNOW EXPECTED THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
.Light snow will develop over western Minnesota this evening and spread eastward over central and eastern Minnesota through western Wisconsin Tuesday night into Wednesday, ending Wednesday afternoon. Most locations within this band of snow will see 2 to 6 inches, with local amounts as high as 7 inches possible near Alexandria and Long Prairie. Areas most likely to receive in excess of 3 inches of snow include those .
A Winter Weather Advisory continues to be in effect for locations along and north of a line from Montevideo to the Twin Cities in Minnesota, to Eau Claire in Wisconsin.
Including the cities of Center City, Litchfield, Monticello, Minneapolis, Blaine, St Paul, and Stillwater
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM CST WEDNESDAY...
* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches.
* WHERE...Portions of central and east central Minnesota.
* WHEN...From 9 PM this evening to 3 PM CST Wednesday.
* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute.
Expect snow and slick roads once again for the Wednesday morning commute.