Winter storm watch Thursday includes the Twin Cities

Our next winter storm is likely to produce more snowfall in Minnesota Thursday.

But the forecast model runs late Monday night and Tuesday have produced two important changes in thinking about the storm. The models now project a faster, more progressive system. And the storm track has shifted southward.

A faster system would reduce the duration of snowfall across Minnesota. The more southerly storm track would focus the heaviest snow across southeastern Minnesota, generally south of the Twin Cities area.

First, light snow on Wednesday

A minor, separate system ahead of Thursday’s storm will likely produce some light snow across much of Minnesota on Wednesday.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s NAM 3 km model loop below paints the mostly light snow zone between midnight and 6 p.m. Wednesday:

NOAA’s High-Resolution Rapid Refresh model solution for snowfall on Wednesday seems reasonable. The best chance for 1 to 3 inches favors central and northern Minnesota, with the Twin Cities likely to see less than an inch of snow by Wednesday evening.

Heavier snowfall Thursday

A stronger weather system will push snow into Minnesota Thursday.

The consensus of the latest models suggests snow will increase across southwestern Minnesota Thursday morning. Most models move the leading edge of the snow zone into the greater Twin Cities from the south late Thursday afternoon through about 6 p.m.

NOAA’s Global Forecast System model is in agreement with the European and Canadian models that the surface low will likely track south of Chicago. That track usually produces the heaviest snow south of the greater Twin Cities area.

Here’s the latest 12Z Global Forecast System run between 6 a.m. Thursday and 6 a.m. Friday:

Winter storm watch Thursday

A winter storm watch has been posted for Thursday for all of southwestern Minnesota through the Twin Cities area.

Including the cities of St Cloud, Sauk Rapids, Elk River, Madison, Benson, Montevideo, Willmar, Litchfield, Monticello, Minneapolis, Blaine, St Paul, Stillwater, Granite Falls, Olivia, Hutchinson, Gaylord, Chanhassen, Chaska, Victoria, Shakopee, Hastings, Redwood Falls, New Ulm, St Peter, Le Sueur, Faribault, Red Wing, St James, Mankato, Waseca, Owatonna, Fairmont, Blue Earth, and Albert Lea

1109 AM CST Tue Mar 7 2023

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 7 inches possible.

* WHERE...Portions of central, east central, south central, southeast, southwest and west central Minnesota.

* WHEN...From Thursday afternoon through Friday morning.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Patchy blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the Thursday evening and Friday morning commutes.

Thursday snowfall totals

It’s still relatively early in the forecast process for this system since snowfall is still over 48 hours away from the Twin Cities.

To my forecast eye, the heaviest snow zone — 4 to 7 inches — is likely to set up mostly south of the Twin Cities across the southern part of Minnesota.

Several forecast model solutions suggest a snowfall range between about 2 and 6 inches for the greater Twin Cities area at this point, but we’ll have to watch forecast model runs Tuesday night and Wednesday. Snowfall projections for the Twin Cities could change if the storm track shifts farther north.

The latest Global Forecast System model (Kuchera) forecast for snowfall ranges from 3 to 6 inches across the Twin Cities with heavier totals across southern Minnesota.

It should be noted that the latest available NOAA products suggest heavier snowfall totals from the Twin Cities through southern Minnesota.

Based on the latest model storm speed and track, I am leaning toward the lower-end solutions for snowfall for the Twin Cities at this point.

Let’s see what the models do Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Stay tuned.