Warming up after Tuesday; uncertainties with Thursday-Friday storm

It’ll be another cooler than normal Tuesday but a few degrees warmer for most in the upper 20s to mid 30s. We’ll have more sunshine also. Wednesday will be warmer ahead of a storm system that brings rain and snow to the region Thursday.

Another chilly morning but warming up

Many spots in northeast Minnesota were below zero again early Tuesday morning under clear skies. Even in portions of southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin some places were subzero.

High temperatures Tuesday afternoon will range from the upper 20s to the mid 30s across Minnesota, which is still several degrees below normal but slightly warmer than yesterday.

We get a nice bump up in temperatures for the next couple days with widespread 40s for most of Minnesota Wednesday afternoon.

Uncertainty is high with the next storm system

Normally confidence increases as we get closer to a storm event but unfortunately that’s not the case with this upcoming storm system. There are two main scenarios that could play out. The first, is that the storm remains split.

This would lead to two main areas of heavy snow in northern Minnesota and southeastern Minnesota or Iowa.

The other, is that the system merges, becomes one larger system.

This would create one, more potent swath of heavy snow and rain that would likely track somewhere between the above solutions.

It’s for these reasons that the official forecast has such a wide range for snowfall.

Regardless, it does appear that northern Minnesota has the higher likelihood of seeing significant snowfall whatever the system does but there is still a lot of possible variation in how much. We’re then in for a blast of chilly air Friday and Saturday with highs in the 20s and even 10s in western Minnesota.