Blizzard warning widens to Twin Cities; heavy snow expected Friday night

Updated 2:38 p.m.

A powerful low-pressure system will continue to spin moisture over the Upper Midwest Friday afternoon into early Saturday. A blizzard warning now stretches across a broad swath of central and southern Minnesota, including the Twin Cities, plus parts of Wisconsin Friday evening and overnight.

Much of southern and central Minnesota plus west-central and southwestern Wisconsin will have periods of rain Friday afternoon. Some embedded thunderstorms are possible. There will be some snow and possibly a bit of freezing rain in portions of southwestern and central Minnesota.

Areas with afternoon rain will see a transition to snow Friday evening, with heavy snow expected in many areas through Friday night and into very early Saturday.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale (NAM) forecast model shows the potential precipitation pattern from 2 p.m. Friday to 9 a.m. Saturday:

NOAA’s High-Resolution Rapid Refresh model shows a similar precipitation pattern Friday afternoon into early Saturday:

In the Twin Cities metro area, the transition from rain to all snow is expected to happen by around 8 p.m. Friday. Parts of the northwestern metro may see an earlier changeover to mainly snow.

How much snow?

Here are National Weather Service forecast snow amounts from Friday afternoon into Saturday morning:

The snow won’t begin in many areas until Friday evening

Snow totals of 6 inches or more are expected in the yellow and orange shaded areas in west-central Minnesota and from the Twin Cities metro area into west-central Wisconsin.

The exact timing of the changeover from rain or a rain-snow mix to all snow will determine exactly which areas receive the most snow. There may be a band of enhanced snowfall rates with higher snow totals.

Winds will ramp up this evening and overnight, severely reducing visibilities.

Warnings and advisories

A blizzard warning covers much of central and southern Minnesota and parts of western Wisconsin Friday evening through the overnight hours of Friday night and into early Saturday:

Here are details of the blizzard warning that begins at 9 p.m. Friday in the Twin Cities metro area and is already in effect in parts of far western Minnesota:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 217 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023 ...BLIZZARD WARNING EXPANDED EASTWARD TO INCLUDE THE TWIN CITIES METRO AND WESTERN WISCONSIN... ...SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED FOR SEVERAL HOURS WITH WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH... .Widespread precipitation will develop late this afternoon and transition to heavy snow from northwest to southeast this evening. The snow could be very heavy at times with hourly rates of 1 to 2.5 inches per hour. Strong north winds will develop with the heavy snow to produce whiteout conditions over a wide swath from west central and southwest Minnesota to west central Wisconsin. The worst conditions are expected between 9 PM and 4 AM, with snow and strong winds tapering off toward early Saturday morning. Total snowfall amounts will range from 5 to 10 inches from west central and southwest Minnesota to west central Wisconsin, with 2 to 5 inches north of Glenwood and St Cloud, and along I-90. Locally higher amounts are possible if snowfall rates exceed 2 inches per hour. A Blizzard Warning is in effect for a large area from west central and southwest Minnesota to west central Wisconsin. A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect north and south of the Blizzard Warning. MNZ051>053-059>063-066>070-075-WIZ014-015-023-010515- /O.UPG.KMPX.WS.W.0008.230401T0000Z-230401T1200Z/ /O.EXB.KMPX.BZ.W.0003.230401T0200Z-230401T1200Z/ Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington- McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-Nicollet-Polk-Barron-St. Croix- Including the cities of Elk River, Cambridge, Center City, Monticello, Minneapolis, Blaine, St Paul, Stillwater, Hutchinson, Gaylord, Chanhassen, Chaska, Victoria, Shakopee, Hastings, St Peter, Osceola, Rice Lake, and Hudson 217 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023 ...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT SATURDAY... * WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 10 inches, with locally heavier amounts possible. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph. * WHERE...Portions of central, east central and south central Minnesota and northwest and west central Wisconsin. * WHEN...From 9 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Saturday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Widespread blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Travel should be restricted to emergencies only. If you must travel, have a winter survival kit with you. If you get stranded, stay with your vehicle. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. Road conditions can also be found at 511mn.org for Minnesota or 511wi.gov for Wisconsin.

The blizzard warning begins at 11 p.m. Friday in Mankato, Red Wing and Eau Claire.

You can find updated weather information for Minnesota and western Wisconsin on the MPR News network, and on the MPR News live weather blog.

Severe weather risk

Southern Minnesota and parts of western Wisconsin could see scattered thunderstorms late Friday afternoon and Friday evening. Southeastern Minnesota has a slight chance of severe weather:

Slight risk means that scattered severe thunderstorms are possible:

An isolated severe thunderstorm is possible in the darker green shaded area in southern Minnesota and parts of Wisconsin.

There is a much higher risk of severe weather Friday afternoon and evening from eastern Iowa into parts of Missouri and Illinois:

A tornado watch covers much of that area Friday afternoon and into Friday evening:

The NWS Storm Prediction Center’s discussion of the tornado watch described this as a particularly dangerous situation:

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 93 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central and Eastern Iowa Western Illinois Northern and Central Missouri Southwest Wisconsin * Effective this Friday morning and evening from 1145 AM until 800 PM CDT. ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION... * Primary threats include... Numerous tornadoes expected with a few intense tornadoes likely Widespread large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Widespread damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Intense supercell thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and spread eastward across the watch area. Tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds are all possible with this activity. Parameters are favorable for the potential for strong/violent tornadoes and very large hail. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 115 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles east of Jefferson City MO to 55 miles east northeast of Mason City IA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24040.

Weekend temps

The average Twin Cities high temperature is 50 degrees on April 1. Metro area highs will be in the upper 30s this Saturday.

Most of Minnesota and western Wisconsin will have highs in the 30s on Saturday, with some 20s in far western Minnesota:

Sunday highs range from 30s in northwestern Minnesota to 50s in the far southeast:

Most of the Twin Cities metro area will see Sunday highs in the 40s.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on MPR News at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:39 p.m. Saturday and Sunday.