Mild weekend temps, 70s on tap this week; Sunday shower chance

Just one week ago, many of us were shoveling 7 to 9 inches of heavy wet snow:

Mild temps earlier this week and yesterday melted a lot of that snow. In my Friday travels through St. Paul and Minneapolis I noticed several south-facing lawns that were almost snow-free. There were still piles of snow in some spots that don’t see much afternoon sunshine.

The latest Minnesota snow depth map shows substantial snow cover across most of central and northern Minnesota:

The map shows snow depths of 18 inches or more in about the northern third of Minnesota, with snow depths of 36 inches or more in portions of Lake County and Cook County of northeastern Minnesota.

Snow depths will be shrinking as temperatures ramp up this weekend and into the coming week.

Temperature trends

Saturday highs will range from 40s in west-central and northern Minnesota to lower 60s in south-central and southeastern Minnesota. Parts of the Twin Cities metro area will reach the lower 60s. The average Twin Cities high temperature is 53 degrees this time of year.

Sunday highs will range from 40s in northwestern Minnesota to 60s in the southeast:

Monday highs will be in the 60s in roughly the southern third of Minnesota, plus much of west-central and southwestern Wisconsin:

It gets even warmer on Tuesday and Wednesday. Twin Cities metro area highs are projected to reach the mid 70s Tuesday and upper 70s Wednesday and Thursday, followed by lower 70s Friday.

The NWS Climate Prediction Center shows a tendency for above-normal temps next weekend and into the following week:

Sunday rain chance

An upper-level disturbance could spawn some showers on Sunday, beginning in the morning in western Minnesota, then spreading eastward. The Sunday shower chance in the Twin Cities metro area appears to be anytime from around midday into the afternoon.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale (NAM) forecast model shows the potential precipitation pattern from 5 a.m. Sunday to 10 p.m. Sunday:

Check forecast updates. You can find updated weather information for Minnesota and western Wisconsin on the MPR News network.

Spring flood update

The National Weather Service released an update on potential spring flooding due to snowmelt.

Here’s their overview:

Here are factors that will effect river level rises this spring:

Thankfully, heavy rain (or snow) are not in the forecast the next few days.

The Duluth NWS office posted a spring flood outlook here.

The NWS also posted a hydrologic outlook for the green-shaded area on this map:

Here are details of that outlook:

Hydrologic Outlook MNC001-017-021-031-035-061-071-075-115-137-WIC003-007-013-031-051- 099-113-129-082100- Hydrologic Outlook National Weather Service Duluth MN 346 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023 ...WARMING TEMPERATURES STARTING SUNDAY LEAD TO A MELTING SNOWPACK AND POSSIBLE FLOODING THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK... Seasonably very warm temperatures spread from south to north Sunday through Tuesday and will lead to melting of the deep and primed snowpack in the Northland. Enhanced runoff from the melting snowpack is expected to start first in central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin early next week and spread northward to the rest of northeast Minnesota by the middle of next week. Flooding of rivers, creeks, streams and in low-lying and flood prone locations is possible next week across the Northland. If you live in an area that has previously experienced flooding impacts, this spring flood season could again impact these same areas. The next update to this outlook is expected by 3:00 PM Saturday, April 8, 2023.

Gauges track rising rivers

You can find info on river levels at various locations here.

This is how the linked map looked this morning:

You can zoom in on the linked map page and get detailed info on river levels at a specific location. Here’s the hydrograph of recent, current and forecast levels for the Mississippi River at St. Paul:

A rise of about 5 feet is expected at that location in the next 7 days, with additional rises likely next weekend and beyond.

Here’s the hydrograph of recent, current and forecast levels for the St. Croix River at Stillwater, Minnesota:

A rise of about 6 feet is expected in the next week, with an additional substantial rise possible the following week.

The March 20 flood outlook from the NWS showed the odds of the St . Croix River reaching major flood stage (89 feet) at Stillwater this spring:

Let’s hope we don’t get significant rainfall anytime soon.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on MPR News at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:39 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.