Scattered showers, snowflakes this weekend; river flooding eases

I know, the weekend is here and we’d like some sunshine and springlike temps. That’s not in the cards for most of Minnesota this weekend.

Temperature trends

The average Twin Cities high temperature is 63 degrees on April 29. Metro area highs will be in the lower 50s this Saturday.

Most of Minnesota and western Wisconsin will have Saturday highs in the 50s, with some upper 40s in parts of northwestern and northeastern Minnesota:

Sunday highs will reach the lower 50s in parts of western Minnesota, with mainly 40s elsewhere:

Milder temps are in the forecast this coming week. Twin Cities metro area highs are projected to reach the lower 50s on Monday, followed by upper 50s Tuesday, upper 60s Wednesday, mid 60s on Thursday and then lower 50s on Friday.

Rain-snow outlook

The best chance for periods of rain Friday evening will be from eastern Minnesota into Wisconsin. An isolated thunderstorm is also possible in southeastern Minnesota and Wisconsin Friday evening. Spotty showers are possible in western Minnesota.

A few flakes could mix with the rain in northeastern Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin late Friday night.

Here are precipitation chances Saturday and Sunday:

• A low-pressure system over the Great Lakes will spin moisture over Minnesota and Wisconsin on Saturday. We’ll have some showers at times, with the best chance of rain in the afternoon. There could be some scattered thunderstorms late Saturday afternoon and Saturday evening, especially in southern Minnesota.

• Some snow could mix with the rain showers in northeastern Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin Saturday night.

• Western Minnesota looks dry on Sunday. There will probably be a mix of rain and snow in eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin Sunday morning, turning to periods of mainly rain by afternoon.

• The Twin Cities metro area will have a chance of flakes mixed with rain showers early Sunday morning, then some off and on rain showers late Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon and evening.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale (NAM) forecast model shows the potential precipitation pattern from 5 a.m. Saturday to 9 p.m. Sunday:

Here are odds of snow accumulation this weekend into early Monday:

Precipitation amounts (rain plus the water content of new snow) will be highest in parts of northern Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan:

There’s a flood watch this weekend for portions of northeastern Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin:

You can find updated weather information for Minnesota and western Wisconsin on the MPR News network.

River levels

The parking lots in the image above are wet due to rain, not from river flooding.

Rivers remain at flood stage in many parts of Minnesota and western Wisconsin, with rivers still at major flood stage at several locations. Rivers have crested in many spots, and will tend to lower over the next several days.

You can check the river levels at various locations in northern Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin here. This is how the linked map looked Friday afternoon:

You can find info on river levels elsewhere in Minnesota and western Wisconsin here.
This is how the linked map looked Friday afternoon:

You can zoom in on the linked map page and get detailed info on river levels at a specific location.

I should mention that river levels are measured in relation to the height above a local benchmark. In some locations, river levels are listed in feet above sea level.

You can find info on river levels in eastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota here. Here’s how the linked map looked Friday afternoon:

Here’s the hydrograph of recent, current and forecast levels for the Mississippi River at St. Paul:

The Mississippi River crested at 18.24 feet at the St. Paul gauge Wednesday morning and it’s still at major flood stage. It’s expected to slowly lower from late Saturday into Sunday and beyond.

You can see images of the river from St. Paul’s Mississippi River Camera page, which rotates among several different views of the river.

In the east Twin Cities metro area, the Mississippi River at Hastings is also at major flood stage. Here’s the hydrograph for the St. Croix River at Stillwater:

The St. Croix River crested at 89.26 feet on Monday and it will continue to lower from its current level of 88 feet.

Here are the historic St. Croix River crests at the Stillwater gauge:

Here’s the hydrograph of recent, current and forecast levels for the Red River at Fargo, N.D.:

The Red River at Fargo crested just below major flood stage last Saturday and it’s now at minor flood stage and it will continue to fall this weekend.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on MPR News at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:39 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.