Rain chances increase Sat. afternoon/evening, t-storms possible too; Rain shifts north on Sunday

I wish I could talk about sunshine today, but we have plenty of clouds in the forecast.

Scattered showers are possible in Minnesota and western Wisconsin this morning and early afternoon, then rain chances increase from mid-afternoon into Saturday evening, with embedded thunderstorms in some areas.

An isolated severe thunderstorm is possible Saturday afternoon and evening from the south metro through southern Minnesota, per the latest severe weather outlook from the NWS Storm Prediction Center:

Here are the severe weather categories that are used by the NWS Storm Prediction Center:

You can find updated weather information for Minnesota and western Wisconsin on the MPR News network.

You can also check the following NWS sites for updated weather info: Twin Cities, Duluth, La Crosse, Sioux Falls, and Grand Forks.

Sunday rain chances

The best chance of rain during the daylight hours of Sunday will be in northern Minnesota. A few scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm could also develop elsewhere in Minnesota and western Wisconsin.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale (NAM) forecast model shows the potential rain pattern from 4 a.m. Sunday to 11 p.m. Sunday:

NOAA’s High-Resolution Rapid-Refresh model shows the following rain pattern for that same time period:

Temperature trends

Highs in the 60s are expected Saturday afternoon in roughly the southern half of Minnesota and into west-central Wisconsin. Highs in the 50s are expected for much of the northern half of Minnesota, with a few 60s in far northwestern Minnesota. There’ll be some 40s near Lake Superior.

Sunday highs reach the 70s in much of central and southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin:

Portions of northern Minnesota will see highs in the 60s, with 50s in far northern Minnesota and near Lake Superior.

Twin Cities metro area highs are projected to be in the lower 70s Monday and Tuesday, followed by mid 70s Wednesday and Thursday and upper 70s on Friday.

No chilly temps are in sight. The NWS Climate Prediction Center show a tendency for above-normal temps from May 11 through May 15:

Weather nugget

The Twin Cities average temp (the average of all the daily high temps and low temps) was 1.3 degrees cooler than normal in April. March was also cooler than normal in the Twin Cities, but January and February were warmer than normal.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on MPR News at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:39 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.