Summery temps and dry weather to start the week; Update on river levels

It’s great when we have two gorgeous days on a weekend!

Temperatures will be comfortable this Sunday afternoon and we’ll have ample sunshine in most locations.

There is still some smoke aloft, originating from wildfires in western Canada. That smoke will tend to be thickest Sunday over the northern half of Minnesota and northern Wisconsin. Some of that thicker smoke could spread southward later in the afternoon and evening. The smoke is expected to remain aloft and it is not expected to affect our breathing.

Sprinkle chance in northeast Minnesota

Parts of northeastern Minnesota could see scattered sprinkles later this afternoon and this evening. That sprinkle chance may linger overnight and into Monday morning.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale (NAM) forecast model shows the potential rain pattern from 6 p.m. Sunday to noon on Monday:

You can find updated weather information for Minnesota and western Wisconsin on the MPR News network. 

Temperature trends

Our average Twin Cities high temperature is 71 degrees on May 21. Metro area highs are forecast to reach the upper 70s this Sunday.

Most of Minnesota and western Wisconsin will see Sunday highs in the 70s. A few spots in western Minnesota could touch 80. There will be some 60s in portions of northeastern Minnesota as gusty easterly winds develop there Sunday afternoon.

Monday highs reach the lower 80s in much of western Minnesota, with upper 70s to around 80 elsewhere:

There will be some 60s near Lake Superior.

Tuesday is expected to be the warmest day of the week, with highs in the 80s in most of Minnesota and western Wisconsin:

Twin Cities metro area highs are projected to reach the lower 80s on Tuesday, followed by lower 70s Wednesday then mid-70s Thursday and around 80 on Friday.

It looks like above-normal temps will continue next weekend and into the start of the following week. Here’s the May 26 through May 30 temperature outlook from the NWS Climate Prediction Center:

That’s good to see, since the outlook covers the Memorial Day weekend.

River update

Several rivers reached a second spring crest in recent days, thanks to the heavy rain that fell over portions of southern Minnesota last weekend and the previous Wednesday night and Thursday.

You can check the river levels at various locations in Minnesota and western Wisconsin here. This is how the linked map looked Sunday morning

You can zoom in on the linked map page and get detailed info on river levels at a specific location.

River levels are measured in relation to the height above a local benchmark. In some locations, river levels are listed in feet above sea level.

Here’s the hydrograph of recent, current and forecast levels for the Minnesota River at Jordan, which is at moderate flood stage:

The Minnesota River at Jordan will fall through the coming week.

The Mississippi River at St. Paul is at minor flood stage, having crested slightly below moderate flood stage this weekend. The Mississippi River at St. Paul is forecast to fall through the coming week:

The first 2023 spring crest of the Mississippi River at St. Paul was 18.24 feet, on April 26.

You can check the Sunday flood statement from the Twin Cities NWS office here. Just click on the “Text Data” tab at the linked site.

Weather nugget

The average Twin Cities high temperature is 71 degrees for May 21. The average Twin Cities high temp reaches 81 degrees on June 21 and it peaks at 84 degrees from July 8 through July 23.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on MPR News at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:39 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.