Sunny Friday; some weekend rain is possible; analysis of the unusually warm period
A weekend disturbance could bring rain for some
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Friday will be mostly sunny and hazy with smoke aloft. Showers and some thunder become possible in western Minnesota Friday night into Saturday with that chance moving east Saturday evening into Sunday.
Sunny, dry Friday
The cool blast of air that came in from the northeast helped to flush out the low level poor air quality but also led to a chilly morning early Friday. Many spots were in the 30s across northeast Minnesota with 40s spreading right up to the Twin Cities.
Look for lots of sun through occasionally hazy skies as we continue to see some smoke aloft. Highs will be in the 70s and 80s for the most part Friday.
Possible rain over the weekend then hot again
Rain chances increase over the weekend as a slow moving upper level trough/wave pushes east. The timing continues to slow as it runs into a stubborn upper level high pressure ridge that’s kept things overall warm and dry.
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Western Minnesota is the most likely area to receive some rain Friday night into Saturday with eastern Minnesota seeing spotty rain Saturday night into Sunday.
The best chance for more significant rainfall will be west as well since this system will be slow moving and lose it’s steam as it pushes east.
After the weekend the heat is building back in. The same overall pattern we’ve had for six weeks of an upper level high pressure ridge or ‘heat dome’ establishes itself again allowing heat and some muggy air to return.
High temperatures will be in the 90+ category for much of southern and western Minnesota most of next week.
Unusually long stretch of above normal temperatures
Most people realize it’s been warmer than normal but it’s pretty staggering just how warm it’s been and how consistent it’s been. Since May 1 temperatures have been running 4 to 6 degrees above normal across Minnesota. The standard deviation for this period is just about 3 degrees so this is very warm.
In the Twin Cities, we can really see this when we plot out temperature anomalies (difference from normal) since April 1. Note the extreme, record-breaking heat wave in the second week of April, then the chill then the consistent warmth since around May 1.
Consider this statistics: the normal high temperature in the Twin Cities isn’t 80 until Saturday (June 17), but of the past 25 days we’ve been in the 80s or warmer 21 of those 25 days (84%)!