Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

Sunday afternoon/evening thunderstorm chance northern MN; Storm chance shifts south Mon.

Monday will be our warmest day

It’ll be a breezy Sunday afternoon, with summery temperatures. Some spots up north will see scattered thunderstorms later in the day.

Sunday thunderstorm chance north

A Canadian cold front sags slowly southward today and tonight, spawning some scattered showers and thunderstorms in mainly the northern third of Minnesota. The best thunderstorm chance would be late Sunday afternoon and Sunday evening. An isolated thunderstorm is also possible in central Minnesota and far northwestern Wisconsin by late Sunday.

The NWS Storm Prediction Center shows a marginal risk (darker green) of severe weather Sunday afternoon and evening in portions of northern Minnesota:

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Severe weather outlooks for Sunday and Monday
NWS Storm Prediction Center, Duluth NWS

Marginal risk means that an isolated severe thunderstorm is possible.

You can hear updated weather information for Minnesota and western Wisconsin on the MPR News network. You can find the latest radar here.

You can also check these National Weather Service sites for updated weather info: Twin CitiesDuluthLa Crosse, Wis., Sioux Falls and Grand Forks.

Thunderstorm chances shift south Monday

The cold front will continue to move slowly southward on Monday, so the best chance of showers & t-storms will shift into the southern half of Minnesota and into west-central and southwestern Wisconsin. The best chance of a shower or thunderstorm will be from mid to late Monday afternoon into Monday evening.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale forecast model shows the potential rain pattern from noon Monday to 11 p.m. Monday:

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Simulated radar from noon Monday to 11 p.m. Monday
NOAA, via Tropicaltidbits.com

Pay more attention to the scattered nature of the rain than the exact location of the rain at any point in time. It could also rain in some spots that look dry in the forecast radar loop.

The NWS Storm Prediction Center shows a marginal risk (darker green) of severe weather Monday afternoon and evening in roughly the southern thurd of Minnesota plus the Twin Cities metro area and much of Wisconsin:

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Severe weather outlook Monday afternoon through Monday night
NWS Storm Prediction Center

Marginal risk means that an isolated severe thunderstorm is possible. Check forecast updates.

The average Twin Cities high temp is 84 degrees this time of year. Most of the metro area will top out in the mid 80s Sunday afternoon, but a few spots could be slightly warmer than that.

Most of Minnesota and western Wisconsin will have Sunday highs in the 80s, A few spots up along the North Shore of Lake Superior could see highs in the 70s.

Monday high temperatures will range from lower 90s in far southern Minnesota to 70s in the far north:

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Monday forecast highs
National Weather Service

Some spots in the Twin Cities metro area could top 90.

Tuesday highs will be mainly in the 70s:

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Tuesday forecast highs
National Weather Service

A few spots in far northern Minnesota could have Tuesday high temps in the upper 60s.

Twin Cities metro area highs are projected to be in the upper 70s Tuesday and Wednesday, followed by lower 80s Thursday and Friday.

Weather nugget

So far this year, there have been four warmer-than-normal months in the Twin Cities and two months that were colder than normal. The warmer-than-normal months were January, February, May and June. The colder-than-normal months were March and April.  

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on MPR News at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:39 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.