Storm chances later Thursday; drought expands into more of Minnesota

This is the time of year that we typically average about 1 inch of rain per week. Many areas are running quite a rainfall deficit over the past couple of months.

The U.S. Drought Monitor report released Thursday shows 63.65 percent of Minnesota is now in drought, with 11.25 percent (shaded orange) in severe drought and 52.40 percent (shaded beige) in moderate drought:

The yellow-shaded areas — 36.35 percent of Minnesota — are abnormally dry, but not yet in drought. For the first time this year, 100 percent of Minnesota is either abnormally dry or in drought.

It should be noted that the rainfall data cutoff for the map is 7 a.m. on Tuesday July 11.

Much of Wisconsin and Iowa have either moderate or severe drought, and portions of both states have an area of extreme drought, which is shaded red:

Rain chances

Scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm are possible Thursday morning in parts of southeastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Scattered showers and thunderstorms could move into western and northern Minnesota later in the afternoon.

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible anywhere in Minnesota plus western Wisconsin Thursday evening and overnight Thursday into Friday.

The National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center shows a slight risk (shaded yellow) of severe weather Thursday afternoon and evening in portions of southern Minnesota and the Twin Cities metro area, with a marginal severe weather risk (darker green) elsewhere in Minnesota plus western Wisconsin:

Slight risk means that scattered severe thunderstorms are possible. Marginal risk means that an isolated severe thunderstorm is possible:

The thunderstorm chance and severe weather potential in the Twin Cities will be mainly Thursday evening into the overnight hours of Thursday night.

You can hear updated weather information for Minnesota and western Wisconsin on the MPR News network. You can find the latest radar here.

You can also check these National Weather Service sites for updated weather info: Twin Cities, Duluth, La Crosse, Wis., Sioux Falls, S.D., and Grand Forks, N.D.

Minnesota and western Wisconsin could also see some scattered thunderstorms late Friday afternoon and Friday evening.

Temperature trends

The average Twin Cities high temperature is 84 degrees this time of year. Metro area highs will be mainly in the mid 80s today.

Most of Minnesota and western Wisconsin will have Thursday highs in the 80s, but parts of north-central and northeastern Minnesota will have highs in the 70s.

Friday highs will be mainly in the 80s:

Parts of northeastern Minnesota could see Friday highs in the 70s.

Saturday high temps will be in the 70s across the northern third of Minnesota, with 80s elsewhere:

Sunday highs range from 60s in far northern Minnesota to lower 80s in the far southeast:

Twin Cities metro area highs are projected to be around 80 degrees on Sunday, followed by upper 70s Monday and lower 80s on Tuesday.

Air quality

Air quality is forecast to remain good in Minnesota this Thursday. A wind shift on Friday may allow Canadian wildfire smoke to spread across portions of Minnesota Friday and Saturday.

You can get the latest air quality reports and air quality forecast from the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on MPR News at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:39 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.