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Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News
Paul Huttner

Severe storms possible Thursday evening; air quality alert Friday, Saturday

Scattered storms, more Canadian wildfire smoke heading for Minnesota

Severe weather risk areas
Severe weather risk areas.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Twin Cities National Weather Service office

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Here we go again.

Scattered severe storms are possible in Minnesota Thursday evening, and yet another air quality alert goes into effect for Minnesota Friday morning at 8 a.m.

Severe risk Thursday night

A weak frontal boundary will cross Minnesota from west to east Thursday evening. Scattered thunderstorms are likely to form along the frontal zone. A few storms could reach severe limits with the potential to produce large hail and damaging winds.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has issued a slight risk for severe storms for southern Minnesota (map above) from the Twin Cities area south and west.

Here’s another look at the risk potential Thursday night:

NOAA’s FV3 model is typical of several models that suggest scattered storms moving across Minnesota this evening. The forecast model loop below runs between 4 p.m. and 10 p.m. Thursday.

NOAA FV3 model
FV3 model between 4 p.m. and 10 p.m. Thursday.
NOAA, via Tropical Tidbits

The most-favored window for a few strong to severe storms around the greater Twin Cities area is between about 8 p.m. and 11 p.m.

Air quality alert

Another wave of Canadian wildfire smoke is heading for Minnesota. The Minnesota Pollution Control Agency has issued another air quality alert for all of Minnesota Friday and Saturday.

NOAA’s Rapid Refresh smoke model shows a thick plume of smoke likely across Minnesota Friday and Saturday. Here’s the forecast image for near-surface smoke at 4 a.m. Saturday:

NOAA RAP model near surface smoke model
Rapid Refresh near-surface smoke model forecast for 4 a.m. Saturday
NOAA

Here are the details of the latest air quality alert from the MPCA:

The Minnesota Pollution Control Agency (MPCA) has issued an air quality alert for all of Minnesota due to wildfire smoke. The alert is effective from 8 a.m. Friday, July 14, through 3 p.m. Saturday, July 15. The affected area includes all of Minnesota as well as the tribal nations of Prairie Island, Mille Lacs, Fond du Lac, Upper Sioux, Leech Lake, Red Lake and Grand Portage.

Fine particle levels are expected to reach the orange air quality index (AQI) category, a level considered unhealthy for sensitive groups, all of Minnesota. In the orange area, sensitive groups should limit prolonged or heavy exertion and time spent outdoors.

Smoke from wildfires in Alberta and British Columbia will move south across Minnesota following a cold front on Friday. The sinking air associated with the cold front will push smoke elevated in the atmosphere down to the surface. This will result in poor air quality. Air quality will gradually improve on Saturday with gradual clearing across Minnesota from north to south. This alert may need to be locally extended depending on how fast the smoke dissipates.

This is the 24th air quality alert issued for Minnesota by the MPCA this year. The previous record for air quality alerts in Minnesota was 21 in 2021. So we’re living through an unprecedented year for wildfire smoke and air quality alerts in Minnesota this year.