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Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News
Paul Huttner

Marginal severe risk Saturday; major heat wave ahead next week

Temperatures could push 100 degrees in parts of South Dakota and Minnesota next week.

Severe weather risk areas
Severe weather risk areas Saturday.
NOAA

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We’re on Doppler watch across Minnesota Saturday afternoon and evening.

It’s not what we meteorologists would call a potent severe weather situation. But there will be just enough moisture and instability in the atmosphere Saturday afternoon to pop a few strong to possibly severe storms. Keep in mind that severe limits according to NOAA are for 1” or greater diameter hail, and winds of 58 mph or greater.

NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center paints the marginal (low) risk zone across Minnesota Saturday. (image above)

Here is NOAA’s technical discussion for storm chances Saturday in our region.

...Central Plains/Upper Midwest...

Around 30-40 kt of northwesterly mid-level flow will remain over much of the central Plains into the Upper Midwest on Saturday. While low-level moisture may remain fairly shallow/limited by late July standards, steepened low/mid-level lapse rates and daytime heating should promote the development of weak to moderate instability by late Saturday afternoon. Large-scale ascent appears nebulous, but isolated to scattered convection may still develop along and southeast of a weak surface trough. With 25-40 kt of deep-layer shear forecast, a widely spaced mix of multicells and supercells may develop and spread southeastward through Saturday evening while posing an isolated threat for large hail and severe wind gusts. Based on latest guidance, have expanded the Marginal Risk to encompass more of the central Plains and Upper Midwest.

So keep an eye out for a few feisty to potentially severe storms Saturday.

Heat wave next week

Our long-advertised heat wave next week looks more likely by the day. NOAA’s 6 to 10-day temperature outlook paints a red zone of above-average temperatures across most of the U.S. next week.

NOAA 6 to 10-day temperature outlook
NOAA 6 to 10-day temperature outlook.
NOAA

Both the European and American GFS models continue to crank out highs in at least the mid-90s for much of Minnesota next week. A few models suggest temperatures will approach 100 degrees in parts of South Dakota and possibly Minnesota by next Wednesday or Thursday.

Here’s NOAA’s GFS model’s steamy temperature output for 4 p.m. Wednesday afternoon.

NOAA GFS temperature output
NOAA GFS temperature output for 4 pm Wednesday, July 26.
NOAA via tropical tidbits

So enjoy the temperate weekend and get ready for some significant heat next week.

Dog Days.