Cooler Sunday, hot weather Tuesday and Wednesday

The Saturday afternoon high temp at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport was 91 degrees. The average Twin Cities high temp is just 80 degrees on this date.

Much of Minnesota saw Saturday highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Northeastern Minnesota was cooler than that. Afternoon dew points reached the 70s in most of southern and central Minnesota, so heat index values either approached or exceeded 100 degrees in many locations.

An excessive heat warning continues into Saturday evening (until 9 p.m.) from south-central Minnesota through the Twin Cities metro area and in several counties to the west of the metro area. A heat advisory continues into early Saturday evening elsewhere in southern and central Minnesota and into west-central Wisconsin.

You can hear updated weather information for Minnesota and western Wisconsin on the MPR News network.

Cooler Sunday, then the heat returns

Sunday highs will be in the 70s in most of the northern half of Minnesota, with 80s to the south:

Far southeastern Minnesota could touch 90.

Monday highs return to the 90s in most of far southern Minnesota, with 80s into central Minnesota and 70s and 60s to the north:

Some spots in the metro area could touch 90 degrees Monday afternoon.

Tuesday high temps reach the 90s in southern and central Minnesota and west-central Wisconsin:

Twin Cities metro area highs are projected to reach the upper 90s on Tuesday and Wednesday, followed by mid 90s Thursday and upper 80s on Friday.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see a 100-degree temperature somewhere in the Twin Cities metro area Wednesday afternoon.

Rain chances are low

Parts of west-central and central Minnesota could see a passing shower Saturday evening.

Portions of northwestern and north-central Minnesota could see a few scattered showers Sunday afternoon. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale (NAM) forecast model shows the potential rain pattern from noon Sunday to 7 p.m. Sunday:

You can check these National Weather Service sites for updated weather info: Twin Cities, Duluth, La Crosse, Wis., Sioux Falls, S.D., and Grand Forks, N.D.

Hurricane Hilary

Hurricane Hilary is now a category 2 hurricane, with max sustained winds of 110 mph. Hilary is headed toward the Baja California Peninsula of Mexico, and is expected to be a tropical storm when its center moves over far southern California Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.

Here’s the forecast track, plus the cone of uncertainty, for the center of Hurricane Hilary:

Here are potential rain totals for this weekend and into the start of next week:

Yellow-shaded areas are between 4 and 6 inches, with 6 to 10 inches of rain possible in the orange-shaded areas.

Portions of the Baja California Peninsula, southern California and southern Nevada are likely to see flooding from Hilary’s rains.

This is the Saturday afternoon update on Hilary, from the NWS National Hurricane Center:

BULLETIN Hurricane Hilary Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092023 300 PM MDT Sat Aug 19 2023 ...HEAVY RAINS ALREADY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S... ...CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING LIKELY... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.8N 114.1W ABOUT 285 MI...455 KM SSE OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO ABOUT 640 MI...1030 KM SSE OF SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos to Cabo San Quintin A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Baja California peninsula north of Cabo San Quintin to Ensenada A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos southward * Baja California peninsula entire east coast * Baja California peninsula north of Cabo San Quintin to the California/Mexico border * Mainland Mexico north of Guaymas * California/Mexico border to Point Mugu * Catalina Island A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Mainland Mexico from Huatabampito to Guaymas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the southwestern U.S. should monitor the progress of Hilary. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Hilary was located near latitude 23.8 North, longitude 114.1 West. Hilary is moving toward the north-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). The hurricane is expected to accelerate as it moves north-northwestward to northward during the next day or two. On the forecast track, the center of Hilary will move close to the west-central coast of the Baja California Peninsula tonight and Sunday morning then move across southern California Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is expected, but Hilary will still be a hurricane when it approaches the west coast of the Baja California Peninsula. Hilary is expected to weaken to a tropical storm before it reaches southern California. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 265 miles (425 km). A sustained wind of 46 mph (74 km/h) and a gust of 61 mph (98 km/h) were recently reported at Puerto Cortes. The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters is 959 mb (28.32 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hilary can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP4.shtml. RAINFALL: Hilary is expected to produce storm total rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts up to 10 inches, across portions of the northern Baja California Peninsula through Sunday night. Flash and urban flooding, locally catastrophic, is expected, especially in the northern portions of the peninsula. Heavy rainfall is expected across the Southwestern United States, peaking late tonight through Sunday night. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated amounts of 10 inches, are expected across portions of southern California and southern Nevada. Dangerous to catastrophic flooding is expected. Elsewhere across portions of the Western United States, rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected, resulting in localized significant flash flooding. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area tonight and early Sunday and are possible within the hurricane watch on Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are occurring within the southern portion of the tropical storm warning area and will spread northward today and Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in southern California on Sunday. Winds could be particularly strong and gusty in and near areas of elevated terrain. Higher gusts are expected well inland and will persist even after the system becomes post-tropical. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely to produce coastal flooding along the western Baja California peninsula of Mexico near where the center passes the coast in areas of onshore winds, or east of the center if Hilary makes landfall. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Coastal flooding is possible along the northern coast of the Gulf of California Sunday through early Monday. TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur Sunday from mid-morning through the evening over parts of the lower Colorado River Valley, Mojave Desert, and Imperial Valley regions. SURF: Large swells generated by Hilary will affect portions of the Baja California Peninsula and southern California over the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

The National Hurricane Center will issue updates on Hilary every three hours or so.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on MPR News at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:39 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.