Extreme heat's on the way. How rare is it for late August?
Near-record temperatures forecast Tuesday, Wednesday
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High temperatures are forecast to reach well into the 90s Tuesday and Wednesday and even triple digits in some spots. The heat index will be into the triple digits. How rare is this heat, this late?
Rare late August heat builds into southern Minnesota
We know it can get hot around here and often times we get at least one good scorcher during the Minnesota State Fair, but it’s rarely as hot as what we’re expecting Tuesday and Wednesday this week.
Consider this: August is our second warmest month of the year behind July, but we’re nearly 50 percent more likely to hit 100 degrees in June than in August and seven times more likely to do in the month of July.
We’ve only hit 100 degrees or hotter seven total times since 1873 in the Twin Cities. The last time was in the notorious summer of 1988. That was also the year we had the most ever 90-degree days or hotter — 44 days.
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While I think we’ll stay shy of 100 in the Twin Cities (despite some computer model forecasts), it’s definitely possible in a few southern Minnesota spots.
Even if we don’t hit 100, as long as it gets above 95 degrees this week it will be the hottest August day in 10 years. It was 97 in August 2013 and 99 degrees in August 2001.
Climate change fingerprints
The question of climate change always comes up when we talk about extremes, even if they’re not record-breaking. Indeed, this level of heat, this late in the season can be at least partly blamed on our warming planet.
Climate Central’s Climate Shift Index gives us a 2 for forecast highs on Tuesday. This means those high temperatures are twice as likely due to the warming we’ve seen.
July and August are witnessing some of our more modest warming in Minnesota, with June and September seeing rapid warming in the most recent decades.
In other words, the peak of our heat is warming more slowly, but summers are definitely getting hotter earlier and staying hotter later. Summers are getting longer and winters are getting shorter.
Consider that August temperatures have warmed about 1 to 3 degrees in just the past 50 years, that’s about half the rate of January, but the standard deviation is also half as much in August compared to January.
That’s a result of more consistent temperatures in August compared to the wild swings of mid winter.