Hurricane Lee explodes to Category 4 with rapid intensification
Lee forecast to hit Category 5 with 165 mph winds Friday
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It looks like a super typhoon in the Pacific.
But Hurricane Lee is now the first Atlantic Category 4 storm this year. The system is nearly perfect in terms of structure and symmetry. The image at the top of this post shows the incredibly large and symmetric central dense overcast and eye structures.
Lee is one of the most impressive and scary-looking Atlantic tropical cyclones I have ever seen.
Category 4 hurricane
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s 5 p.m. AST update for Lee pegs maximum sustained winds at 130 mph. That puts Lee into Category 4 status.
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BULLETIN Hurricane Lee Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
500 PM AST Thu Sep 07 2023
...LEE NOW A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
...RIP CURRENTS AND HAZARDOUS SURF WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN FRIDAY AND BEGIN AFFECTING THE MAINLAND U.S. BY SUNDAY...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION --------------------------------------------
-- LOCATION...16.9N 51.3W ABOUT 780 MI...1260 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.15 INCHES
Rapid intensification
Lee underwent rapid intensification Thursday. Maximum sustained wind speed blew up from 75 mph to 130 mph since Wednesday. Rapid intensification is defined by an increase in the maximum sustained winds of a tropical cyclone of at least 35 mph in a 24-hour period.
Category 5 Friday?
The official National Hurricane Center forecast for Lee cranks winds up to 165 mph in about 24 hours. That would put Lee into rare Category 5 status.
KEY MESSAGES: 1. Lee has become a major hurricane, and further strengthening is expected, with its core moving north of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico this weekend and early next week.
2. Dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents are likely in the northern Leeward Islands beginning Friday. These conditions will spread westward, affecting Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas through the weekend.
3. Dangerous surf and rip currents are expected along most of the U.S. East Coast beginning Sunday. Please consult products from your local weather office for more information.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 16.9N 51.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 17.6N 53.0W 140 KT 160 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 18.7N 55.2W 145 KT 165 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 19.7N 57.2W 140 KT 160 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 20.6N 59.0W 135 KT 155 MPH
Forecast track
Lee is forecast to continue to move generally west-northwest for the next few days. That would put Lee north of the Dominican Republic by about next Tuesday.
After that, steering currents and forecast models continue to show a turn to the north. If accurate, that would keep the main body of Lee offshore from the East Coast of the United States.
But a few models bring Lee very close to New England later next week. With uncertainties in the way upper-air steering patterns evolve that far out, it is still possible that Lee could become a threat to the U.S. East Coast late next week.
Stay tuned.