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One of the colder Halloweens ahead next week?

Highs in the 30s to low 40s look likely across Minnesota next Tuesday

A child dressed as the character the Lorax
Laura Kamin-Lyndgaard and her son start early when planning each year's Halloween costume. Here he is as the Lorax, made with the cold weather in mind.
Courtesy of Laura Kamin-Lyndgaard

There’s still time to get that Will Steger arctic explorer costume together for Halloween this year. And if you go that route, you might be one of the more comfortable trick-or-treaters out there next Tuesday.

A late October polar air mass will bring freezing temperatures to Minnesota this year.

NOAA 8 to 14-day temperature outlook
8 to 14-day temperature outlook
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

It’s still a little early to be precise on temperatures a week out, but it looks like highs will likely be in the 30s to low 40s on Halloween this year across Minnesota. Winds may push wind chills even lower on Halloween evening.

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model has temperatures across Minnesota in the 20s by 7 p.m. on Halloween night:

European model (ECMWF) temperature forecast 2
Temperature forecast for 7 p.m. Oct. 31
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, via Pivotal Weather

Brisk northwest winds will likely funnel in the chill early next week. Here’s the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model wind flow for 1 p.m. Tuesday, Oct. 31.

Wind forecast
Wind forecast for 1 p.m. Oct. 31
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, via Pivotal Weather

And check out these wind chills, the European model also cranks out wind chills in the teens across Minnesota by 7 p.m. next Tuesday:

European model (ECMWF) temperature forecast
Wind chill temperature forecast for 7 p.m. on Oct. 31
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, via Pivotal Weather

Cold Halloweens recently

Last year we hit 65 degrees in the Twin Cities on Halloween day. But we’ve endured some cold Halloweens in the past 10 years in Minnesota.

In the Twin Cities, the high was just 36 degrees for Halloween four years ago in 2019. It was a frigid 35 degrees two years before that in 2017. The last time the Twin Cities hit 70 degrees on Halloween was 23 years ago in 2000!

Here’s a look at Halloween temperatures from 2000 in the Twin Cities. I’ve highlighted the coldest (2017) and warmest (2000) Halloweens.

Halloween data since 2000
Halloween data for the Twin Cities from 2000.
Minnesota State Climatology Office

And here’s the narrative on Halloween climate from the Minnesota State Climatology Office.

Halloween is typically a time of crunchy leaves on the ground, a bit of chill in the air, and lots of candy. High temperatures in the Twin Cities are generally in the 40s and 50s. It is more common for the daily high on Halloween to be in the 60s than in the 30s. 70s tend to be rare, with only eight Halloween high temperatures being 70 degrees or above or about one in eighteen years.

The warmest Halloween on record was 83 degrees in 1950, with one of the coldest one year later with a high of 30 in 1951. The coldest Halloween maximum temperature was a bone-chilling 26 degrees back in 1873. The last twenty-five years have had some balmy Halloween afternoons, like the 71-degree F high in 2000. We've had some chilly ones as well, like in 2017, when the temperature never rose above 35 F at MSP. The area has not seen a Halloween washout, with measurable precipitation during the evening, since 1997.

Measurable precipitation has occurred on Halloween only 26% of the time in the Twin Cities, or 38 times out of 145 years. The most rain recorded was in 1979 with .78 inches. In 1991 .85 inches of precipitation fell, which was snow.

In spite of the 1991 Halloween Blizzard, measurable snow on Halloween is about as rare as getting a full-sized candy bar in your trick-or-treat bag. Since 1872 there's been enough snow to measure only six times: 0.6 in 1884; 0.2 in 1885; 1.4 in 1932; 0.4 in 1954; 0.5 in 1995; and of course 8.2 inches, with the opening round of the Halloween Blizzard in 1991. Thus there has been measurable snow on only 4% of the days.

We’ll keep an eye on possible forecast changes in the next week.