Snow: Winter weather advisory for NW Minnesota
Several inches will fall northwest. Twin Cities flakes Saturday?
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The seasonal transition from fall to winter weather is here.
A winter weather advisory is posted for northwestern Minnesota into Friday. Winter storm warnings are up for most of North Dakota, and the season’s first snowflakes could fly in the Twin Cities by Saturday.
Here’s a look at the transition we’ll all feel over the next few days.
Winter storm conditions
Heavy snow is falling in North Dakota at locations around Minot as I write this post. Lighter snow is just edging into the far northwest corner of Minnesota in Kittson County. It’s part of a large storm system that will cross the Upper Midwest through Friday.
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I like the looks of how the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s NAM 3 km model is handling this system. You can see how rain increases across most of Minnesota through Thursday, with snow in the northwest. The forecast model loop below runs between 7 p.m. Wednesday and 7 p.m. Friday.
Snowfall totals
Most forecast models agree that northwest Minnesota is the focus for snow. Heavier totals will fall across North Dakota where more than a foot will fall. Here’s NOAA’s NAM 3 km model snowfall output.
Here’s the winter weather advisory wording from the Grand Forks, N.D., National Weather Service office.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
West Polk-Kittson-Roseau-West Marshall-East Marshall-Pennington- Red Lake-Eastern Walsh-Grand Forks-Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes- Including the cities of Crookston, East Grand Forks, Hallock, Karlstad, Lancaster, Roseau, Warroad, Greenbush, Warren, Stephen, Argyle, Newfolden, Middle River, Grygla, Thief River Falls, Red Lake Falls, Grafton, Park River, Grand Forks, Cooperstown, Finley, Hope, Mayville, Hillsboro, Hatton, Portland, and Valley City
322 PM CDT Wed Oct 25 2023
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 1 PM CDT FRIDAY...
* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.
* WHERE...Portions of northwest Minnesota and northeast and southeast North Dakota.
* WHEN...From 7 AM Thursday to 1 PM CDT Friday.
* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow totals are from what will fall. Actual snow on the ground by Friday will depend on how much melts and compacts as it falls.
Mostly rain elsewhere
The atmosphere over most of Minnesota remains warm enough for rain. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model is typical of those that lay out between one-half and 1 inch of rainfall for parts of central and southern Minnesota, including the Twin Cities.
Twin Cities: A few flakes Saturday?
Forecast models are not unanimous on snowfall for the Twin Cities and southern Minnesota Saturday, but a few suggest we will see some flakes fly on Saturday.
The European model has also suggested we could see a light snowy coating in some areas.
Unseasonably cold air mass ahead
The inbound Canadian air mass will drop temperatures well below average this weekend into early next week.
NOAA’s six to 10-day outlook still strongly favors colder-than-average temperatures through Halloween.
But there are signs we may moderate back into the 50s again later next week.