Blizzard warnings in Northwest Minnesota, winter weather advisories across the state

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The seasonal transition from fall to winter weather is here.

A winter weather advisory is posted for northwestern Minnesota into Friday. Winter storm warnings are up for most of North Dakota, and the season’s first snowflakes could fly in the Twin Cities by Saturday. 

Here’s a look at the transition we’ll all feel over the next few days. 

Heavy snow is falling in North Dakota at locations around Minot as I write this post. Lighter snow is just edging into the far northwest corner of Minnesota in Kittson County. It’s part of a large storm system that will cross the Upper Midwest through Friday. 

I like the looks of how the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s NAM 3 km model is handling this system. You can see how rain increases across most of Minnesota through Thursday, with snow in the northwest. The forecast model loop below runs between 7 p.m. Wednesday and 7 p.m. Friday.

Most forecast models agree that northwest Minnesota is the focus for snow. Heavier totals will fall across North Dakota where more than a foot will fall. Here’s NOAA’s NAM 3 km model snowfall output. 

 wording from the Grand Forks, N.D., National Weather Service office. 

The atmosphere over most of Minnesota remains warm enough for rain. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model is typical of those that lay out between one-half and 1 inch of rainfall for parts of central and southern Minnesota, including the Twin Cities. 

Forecast models are not unanimous on snowfall for the Twin Cities and southern Minnesota Saturday, but a few suggest we will see some flakes fly on Saturday. 

The European model has also suggested we could see a light snowy coating in some areas. 

The inbound Canadian air mass will drop temperatures well below average this weekend into early next week.

NOAA’s six to 10-day outlook still strongly favors colder-than-average temperatures through Halloween. 

But there are signs we may moderate back into the 50s again later next week.

Weather and Climate News

Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

Paul Huttner

Author

A winter weather advisory is posted for northwestern Minnesota into Friday. Winter storm warnings are up for most of North Dakota, and the season’s first snowflakes could fly in the Twin Cities by Saturday. 


Snow: Winter weather advisory for NW Minnesota

Grand Forks National Weather Service office

NOAA via tropical tidbits

NOAA via pivotal weather 

European model (ECMWF) precipitation output 3

Snow: Winter weather advisory for NW Minnesota

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