It looks like El Niño is already flavoring our weather patterns
Mild Pacific flow pattern likely a preview of the upcoming winter
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El Niño has arrived in the tropical Pacific Ocean. A large ribbon of warmer-than-average ocean water has taken firm hold in the tropical Pacific. There is already a large area that is already more than 2 degrees Celsius above average.
It looks like the El Niño event is already forcing the upper airflow pattern across North America.
Example? Our balmy Minnesota November.
Temperatures in the Twin Cities are running 6.1 degrees warmer than average through Nov. 19. The past week has been incredibly warm.
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Below, check out the temperature departure map over the Midwest in the past seven days. Minnesota has been the epicenter of unseasonable warmth with some areas running more than 20 degrees warmer than average.
Zonal flow
Meteorologists refer to upper airflow patterns as meridional or zonal. Meridional flow patterns show high amplitude (big) waves with north-to-south dips. Zonal flow is flatter, with more of a west-to-east flow. Zonal flow typically brings milder Pacific air masses to Minnesota.
The map below is an example from last Wednesday, Nov. 15. This was the middle of straight days above 60 degrees in the Twin Cities and most of southern Minnesota.
This type of zonal flow pattern is typical of El Niño winters. So we can expect it to be a recurring feature this winter. When it happens temperatures will tend to run milder than average in Minnesota and the Upper Midwest.
I wrote earlier Monday about our Thanksgiving weekend cold snap ahead. But the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s week 3 to 4 temperature outlook suggests we may revert back to warmer than average in the first half of December.
It’s important to remember that even though we’re entering a strong to super El Niño winter, we’ll still get cold and snow. It’s just statistically likely to end up milder and less snowy than average overall this winter.
So winter isn’t canceled this year. It’s just likely to be more of a winter-light version compared to our 90 inches of snow last winter.
Stay tuned.