White Christmas chances fading by the day for most of Minnesota

Minnesota weather can turn on a dime.

But unless we see significant changes in forecast model solutions for the next two weeks, it appears likely that much of Minnesota could see a brown or beige Christmas this year. Our blooming Super El Niño is likely the reason.

Let’s start with current snow cover across Minnesota. As you can see on the map below, there is patchy snow cover over much of northern and central Minnesota, with relatively little snow in the south.

Little snow in the models

Forecast models as of Monday afternoon favor little chance for snow in the next 10 days. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model is basically snow-free for most of Minnesota through 10 days.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Global Forecast System model Monday afternoon suggests a possible snowy stripe right before Christmas across central and northeastern Minnesota.

However, it should be noted that this solution is currently an outlier. It also suggests rain may fall in the days before Christmas.

Unseasonable warmth continues

One thing all forecast models agree on is a continuation of the warmer-than-normal pattern over the next two weeks.

So if we’re going to pull a white Christmas miracle out of Santa’s weather hat, it may have to happen in the 48 hours leading up to Christmas.

Stay tuned.