Top Five Minnesota weather events of 2023; A quiet New Year's Day

The Minnesota State Climatology Office has compiled a list of the Top Five Weather Events for 2023 in Minnesota.

According to the Climatology Office:

Votes were cast from various weather enthusiasts including the National Weather Service, the University of Minnesota, State agencies and Facebook followers.

I was among the Minnesota meteorologists who voted this year.

The final vote tally has been completed and here are the results as posted by the Climatology Office, along with their narrative for each event and links to more info:

#1 Where’s December?

After Halloween, winter weather has been pretty much MIA in Minnesota for the rest of 2023. The final tally will not be known until New Year's Eve, but 2023 appears to be rivalling the champion of warm Decembers: 1877 when Rutherford B. Hayes was president. A strong El Nino and the lack of snow cover has boosted average temperatures about ten degrees above normal for December through the 22nd. Just like in 1877, residents were peering to the skies waiting for the “other shoe to drop."

#2 Very Wet (and Snowy) Winter:

A pattern of persistent storminess from December 2022 through February 2023 brought record precipitation to parts of Minnesota. Rochester had its wettest Meteorological Winter on record, St. Cloud and the Twin Cities had their second wettest winter, and Duluth had its third wettest winter on record. Looking at the entire winter from October to April, the Twin Cities had its 3rd snowiest winter on record with 90.3 inches and Duluth had its snowiest winter since records began at the Airport with a whopping 140.1 inches, over eleven feet of snow.

#3 Smoky Skies in May and June:

Smoke from wildfires affected Minnesota again in the spring and summer of 2023. On May 18, a Canadian cold front ushered in a mass of thick smoke that caused air to be in the “unhealthy” category. This event was eclipsed by the June 14 event that placed Minnesota in the most unhealthy air quality in the country. The average Air Quality Index (AQI) for June 14 for the Twin Cities was 175, which is the highest daily average measure recorded in the Twin Cities since Air Quality Index records began in 1980.

#4 The Drought of 2023:

For the third year in a row, significant drought conditions developed again in Minnesota during 2023. Interestingly, this series of annual droughts ebb and flow, with different parts of the state being the epicenter of the drought. 2023 was no exception.

#5 "Big Mess" Snowstorm Clobbers Minnesota: January 2-5, 2023

The New Year greeted Minnesota with a large, messy winter storm, as a concoction of heavy snow, freezing rain, sleet, rain, and thunderstorms pounded parts of the state. The storm produced widespread accumulations of over one foot, with 15.1 inches for a storm total in the Twin Cities, making this the 14th-largest snowstorm on record since 1884.

One weather event received honorable mention, but it did not crack the top five:

(Honorable Mention) Happy Hour Hail! August 11, 2023:

The most significantly damaging thunderstorms of 2023 developed over central, eastern, and southern Minnesota on Friday August 11, producing heavy hail and strong winds, and striking the Twin Cities right as people were leaving work for the weekend. The storms battered homes and cars over much of the Twin Cities area and other parts of central Minnesota, ringing up a staggering damage toll that by November 2023 had exceeded $2 billion.

MPR meteorologist Sven Sundgaard compiled a list of Minnesota’s top ten weather and climate stories of 2023. Sven’s list is in chronological order, not in order of significance.

Warmest December on record

The average Twin Cities temperature was 34.6 degrees over the first 30 days of December 2023. That’s warmer than the warmest December in Twin Cities weather records, which occurred in 1877 and had an average temp of 33.8 degrees.

The average monthly temperature is the average of all the daily low temps and high temps. The Dec. 31 Twin Cities high and low temps will only decrease the Dec. 2023 average temperature slightly.

December 2023 will be the warmest December in Twin Cities weather records.

September 2023 eclipsed September 1897 as the warmest September in Twin Cities weather records.

Quiet weather on New Year’s Day

We aren’t expecting additional snowfall Sunday evening. There could be some leftover slick spots on sidewalks and untreated streets, due to remnants of the snow and freezing drizzle of Saturday night and early Sunday.

You can hear updated weather information for Minnesota and western Wisconsin on the MPR News network. 

Our weather looks drama-free on New Year’s Day 2024. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale Forecast System model shows the lack of precipitation in Minnesota and western Wisconsin from 4 a.m. Monday to 11 p.m. Monday:

We may start out with plenty of clouds, with some sunshine developing by Monday afternoon.

Temperature trends

The average Twin Cties high temperature is 25 degrees on Jan. 1. Monday highs will reach the lower 30s in the metro area and across much of Minnesota and western Wisconsin:

Some upper 20s are possible in northwestern Minnesota.

Tuesday highs will be in the 20s in roughly the northern third of Minnesota, with 30s elsewhere:

Twin Cities metro area highs are projected to reach the mid 30s on Tuesday, then around 30 degrees Wednesday and Thursday followed by lower 30s on Friday.

January outlook

The mild start to January may be offset by cooler temps the second week of January. The NWS Climate Prediction Center shows that Minnesota has equal chances for above-normal and below-normal temps for the month as a whole:

Weather nugget

The official Twin Cities snowfall total at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport was 2.7 inches in October 2023. The November 2023 total was 0.5 of an inch. It appears that the final tally for December 2023 will be 2.1 inches. This was a rare year with more snow in October than in November or December!

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on MPR News at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:39 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.