Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

Pattern change ahead likely brings snow and cold to Minnesota

Forecast models suggest much colder air, snow chances next week

NOAA GFS upper air forecast
Global Forecast System upper-air forecast next Sunday through Wednesday
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, via Tropical Tidbits

You knew our balmy winter wouldn’t last forever.

After the warmest December on record in Minnesota, the overall weather pattern looks ready to change dramatically as we move deeper into January.

The upper-air pattern across North America is shifting, and forecast models suggest much colder air next week with chances for accumulating snow across most of Minnesota.

You can see on the loop above that the upper-air pattern over Minnesota shifts from warmer than average air to colder than average between Sunday and next Wednesday.

That means temperatures will be cold enough for snowfall across our region next week. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Global Forecast System suggests two weather systems could bring accumulating snowfall next week.

The loop below suggests snow around next Monday and Thursday.

NOAA GFS model
Global Forecast System model next Monday through Thursday
NOAA, via Tropical Tidbits

It’s too early to be confident about potential snowfall accumulations. But here is a range of what forecast models are putting out as of Tuesday. Take this as a range of possibilities, not specific forecasts.

NOAA’s Global Forecast System model lays out significant snowfall through next week.

NOAA GFS snowfall output
Global Forecast System snowfall output through next week
NOAA, via Pivotal Weather

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model suggests much lighter snowfall totals through next week but still suggests a coating of white across Minnesota.

European model (ECMWF) snowfall output
European model snowfall output forecast through next week
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, via Pivotal Weather

Much colder air masses

Even a couple of inches of fresh snow will change temperature dynamics across our region. Forecast models suggest a feed of much colder air next week. We could see the first real subzero arctic air masses of the winter season next week.

Here’s the Canadian model temperature output for next week.

Canadian model
Canadian model temperatures between Sunday and Wednesday
Environment Canada, via Pivotal Weather

So enjoy the relatively greenish grass around much of the area this week. It looks like our Minnesota landscape will turn bright white next week.

Stay tuned.