6th latest subzero on record likely for Twin Cities

Minnesota’s slowest start to winter on record began with the warmest December on record.

Now we watch and wait for the so far inevitable first subzero temperature of the season in the Twin Cities and most of central and southern Minnesota. Why so far inevitable? In more than 150 years of records, the Twin Cities has never failed to record subzero temperatures in winter.

The coldest temperature so far this winter season in the Twin Cities? Eight degrees above zero on Nov. 28, 2023. Temperatures have already reached subzero levels across much of northern Minnesota this winter.

So as this weekend’s subzero arctic outbreak finally arrives in the Twin Cities, we watch to see where this ranks among the latest first subzero temperatures on record.

Here are some key dates for subzero reading in the Twin Cities.

• Jan. 19, 2019: Latest first subzero temperature on record in the Twin Cities (-1)

• Dec. 9: Long-term average first subzero temperature at the Minneapolis St. Paul International Airport

• Nov. 4, 1991: Earliest first subzero temperature on record at MSP Airport

• Jan. 14: Currently forecast first subzero temperature at MSP this winter (sixth latest on record)

• 22 days: Average number of days with subzero temperatures in the Twin Cities (from 1991-2020)

Here’s more on the dates for the latest subzero temperature on record in the Twin Cities from the Minnesota State Climatologist’s Office.

On Jan. 19, 2019, the mercury finally dipped below zero in the Twin Cities (as measured at MSP airport), with a minimum temperature of -1 degrees F recorded just after sunrise. This was the latest into the winter the Twin Cities had gone without a below-zero reading, setting the record by one calendar day. The previous record had been a three-way tie between 2012, 2002 and 1889.

In 147 years of record-keeping in the Twin Cities, the official temperature has always fallen below zero at some point during the winter. In fact, there has never been a Twin Cities winter during which the temperature did not dip below zero at least twice. The 2018-19 joined that pack as well, with an additional subzero reading (-5 degrees F) on Jan. 20.

The long-term average date of the first below-zero reading in the Twin Cities is Dec. 9. The earliest below-zero temperature recorded in the Twin Cities was Nov. 4, 1991.

Temperatures in January so far are running 10.9 degrees warmer than normal in the Twin Cities. The next week will finally feel more like a traditional Minnesota winter.