Southern Minnesota set for heaviest snow; subzero wind chills this weekend

Our winter storm is still evolving.

Forecast model trends now show lower snow totals for the Twin Cities metro area and central Minnesota, with the highest snow totals Friday into Saturday in southern Minnesota and across much of Wisconsin.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale Forecast System model shows the potential precipitation pattern from 2 p.m. Friday to 5 p.m. Saturday:

Snow forecast

Here’s the National Weather Service snow forecast posted Friday morning:

The latest forecast models show that much of the Twin Cities metro area may see 2 to 4 inches of snow Friday into Saturday morning.

The updated forecast discussion and Twin Cities forecast reflect this change:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1010 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 ...SNOW AMOUNTS TRENDING DOWN, BUT DANGEROUSLY COLD AIR REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK... .Snow is moving in a bit slower, and as a result forecast snowfall amounts have decreased across the region. This will be a long duration event, with relatively low snowfall rates around 0.5 inches/hour or less. By Saturday night, the best chances for 6 or more total inches of snow remains east of I-35, south of the Twin Cities metro, and south of I-94 in western Wisconsin. Northwest winds will increase Friday afternoon in Saturday, gusting near 35 mph in portions of southwestern MN. This will lead to blowing snow and the potential for brief white out conditions. Confidence remains high that dangerously cold wind chills will follow into Saturday night, with widespread values of -25 to -40 likely through early next week. A Wind Chill Watch is in effect for much of western and southern Minnesota. MNZ051>053-059>063-068-069-130015- /O.CON.KMPX.WW.Y.0005.240112T2000Z-240113T1200Z/ Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington- Carver-Scott- Including the cities of Elk River, Cambridge, Center City, Monticello, Minneapolis, Blaine, St Paul, Stillwater, Chanhassen, Chaska, Victoria, and Shakopee 1010 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches. * WHERE...Portions of central and east central Minnesota. * WHEN...From 2 PM this afternoon to 6 AM CST Saturday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. Road conditions can also be found at 511mn.org for Minnesota or 511wi.gov for Wisconsin.

The northwestern portion of the metro area will probably see their snow begin later Friday afternoon, with snow arriving earlier in the remainder of the metro area.

Wisconsin will see some impressive snow totals from this storm:

Warnings and advisories

Much of southern Minnesota and Wisconsin are in a winter storm warning Friday into Saturday. Winter weather advisories include parts of central Minnesota and the Twin Cities metro area Friday and Friday night:

Here are details of the winter storm warning in southeastern Minnesota and northeastern Iowa:

IAZ009-010-MNZ079-086>088-094-095-130100- /O.CON.KARX.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-240113T1500Z/ Howard-Winneshiek-Wabasha-Dodge-Olmsted-Winona-Mower-Fillmore- Including the cities of Cresco, Decorah, Wabasha, Dodge Center, Rochester, Winona, Austin, and Preston 1056 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations of 4 to 9 inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph. * WHERE...Portions of northeast Iowa and southeast Minnesota. * WHEN...Until 9 AM CST Saturday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Patchy blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. In Iowa, visit 511ia.org for road conditions. In Minnesota, visit 511mn.org for road conditions.

The blizzard warning in parts of southwestern Minnesota has various start times and end times.

You can hear updated weather information for Minnesota and western Wisconsin on the MPR News network. 

Updated forecast information will be posted by the National Weather Service offices in the Twin Cities, Duluth, La Crosse, Wis., and Sioux Falls, S.D.

Heavy snow is expected this weekend in parts of northern Wisconsin:

Here are the warnings and advisories that have been posted in northeastern Minnesota and northern Wisconsin:

Minnesota road conditions can be found here. Wisconsin road conditions can be found here.

Very cold weekend

Saturday morning low temperatures will be below zero in western and northern Minnesota and just a few degrees above zero in the Twin Cities metro area and southeastern Minnesota.

Strong winds will create Saturday morning wind chill temps of 20 below zero to 32 below zero in western Minnesota, with wind chills in the teens below zero in much of eastern Minnesota:

Saturday high temps will be slightly below zero in western Minnesota and a few degrees above zero in the east:

Twin Cities high temps of 10 to 12 degrees above zero will be well below the average Jan. 13 Twin Cities high of 23 degrees.

Low temperatures Sunday morning will be in the teens below zero in western and northern Minnesota, with single digits below zero in the metro area and southeastern Minnesota:

Sunday morning wind chills will be in the 30s below zero in western Minnesota and in the 20s below zero in much of eastern Minnesota:

Sunday highs will be below zero in many locations. Parts of the Twin Cities metro area could creep slightly above zero:

Your warmest coat and mittens will be appropriate attire this weekend.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on MPR News at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:39 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.