Arctic cold lingers into Tuesday; update on wind chill advisories & warnings

Updated at 12:40 p.m.

Arctic cold temps will stay with us today and right into Tuesday.

Many spots in Minnesota willl see Sunday highs in the single-digits below zero. Some spots in the Twin Cities metro area and west central Wisconsin could touch zero or creep slightly above zero. That’s very cold; the average Twin Cities high temperature is 23 degrees this time of year.

There’s enough wind to generate wind chill temps of 25 to 35 below zero in many locations. Some locations in western and southern Minnesota have seen wind chills of minus 40 or lower Sunday morning.

A wind chill warning (darker blue on the graphic below) covers west-central, south-central and southwestern Minnesota until noon Sunday:

After noon today and until noon on Tuesday, the wind chill warning area is trimmed back (smaller map) but it will continue in southwestern Minnesota and in a couple of west-central Minnesota counties until noon on Tuesday. The light-blue shaded areas of central and southern Minnesota have wind chill advisories today through Tuesday morning.

Wind chill advisories are posted for west-central Wisconsin and northwestern Minnesota until noon on Monday. Wind chill advisories expire at noon today in northeastern Minnesota and in northwestern Wisconsin, but they will probably be reissued for Sunday night through Monday morning, based on wind chill forecasts:

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12:40 p.m. update

The NWS has extended the wind chill advisory in northeastern Minnesota. It now continues from this afternoon through noon on Tuesday.

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Here are wind chill forecasts and advisories/warnings for northwestern Minnesota:

Here are forecast wind chills for portions of Minnesota and Wisconsin:

Wind chill warning/advisory details

Wind chill advisories are typically issued for forecast wind chills of 25 degrees below zero to 34 degrees below zero, with wind chill warnings for prolonged wind chills of 35 degrees below zero or colder.

Here are details of the wind chill warning in southwestern Minnesota:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 1219 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097- 098-NEZ013-014-SDZ056-062-066-067-069>071-141430- /O.EXP.KFSD.BZ.W.0001.000000T0000Z-240114T0600Z/ /O.CON.KFSD.WC.W.0001.000000T0000Z-240116T1800Z/ Lyon-Osceola-Dickinson-Sioux-O`Brien-Clay-Plymouth-Cherokee- Buena Vista-Woodbury-Ida-Lincoln-Murray-Cottonwood-Nobles-Jackson- Pipestone-Rock-Dixon-Dakota-Moody-Minnehaha-Turner-Yankton-Union- 1219 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 ...WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY... ...BLIZZARD WARNING HAS EXPIRED... * WHAT...Dangerously cold wind chills. Wind chills as low as 50 below zero. * WHERE...Portions of northwest Iowa, southwest Minnesota and east central and southeast South Dakota. * WHEN...For the Blizzard Warning, until midnight CST tonight. For the Wind Chill Warning, until noon CST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...The dangerously cold wind chills could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 10 minutes. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... As the winds continue to gradually decrease overnight, remember to heed to your local travel restrictions. Continued breeziness could lead to some drifting and periods of reduced visibility on the roadways. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Avoid outside activities if possible. When outside, make sure you wear appropriate clothing, a hat, and gloves.

Here are details of the wind chill advisory that includes the Twin Cities metro area today through Tuesday morning:

MNZ042>045-049>053-058>063-066-068>070-076>078-084-085-142100- /O.CON.KMPX.WC.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-240116T1800Z/ Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stearns-Benton-Sherburne-Isanti- Chisago-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-McLeod- Carver-Scott-Dakota-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Waseca-Steele- Including the cities of Long Prairie, Little Falls, Princeton, Mora, St Cloud, Sauk Rapids, Elk River, Cambridge, Center City, Litchfield, Monticello, Minneapolis, Blaine, St Paul, Stillwater, Hutchinson, Chanhassen, Chaska, Victoria, Shakopee, Hastings, Le Sueur, Faribault, Red Wing, Waseca, and Owatonna 311 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Very cold wind chills. Wind chills as low as 35 below zero. * WHERE...Portions of central, east central, south central and southeast Minnesota. * WHEN...Until noon CST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...The dangerously cold wind chills could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 10 minutes. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Use caution while traveling outside. Dress in layers and cover exposed skin.

You can hear updated weather information for Minnesota and western Wisconsin on the MPR News network. 

Updated forecast information will be posted by the National Weather Service offices in the Twin Cities, Duluth, La Crosse, Wis., Sioux Falls, S.D. and Grand Forks, N.D.

Temperature trends

Monday highs will be in the single-digits below zero across most of Minnesota:

Tuesday highs reach the single-digits above zero in most of Minnesota and western Wisconsin:

Twin Cities metro area highs are projected to reach about 15 degrees on Wednesday, then around 11 degrees Thursday and 8 degrees Friday.

It looks like central and southern Minnesota could see highs in the 20s next Sunday and in the 30s the following Monday, Jan. 22.

The NWS Climate Prediction Center shows a tendency for above-normal temps in Minnesota and Wisconsin from Jan. 21 through Jan. 27:

We’ll see if that pans out.

Dry Sunday and Monday

Most of Minnesota will have a dry Sunday and Monday. Northeastern Minnesota could see a passing flurry today. Parts of far northern Minnesota could see scattered light snow showers Monday evening.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale Forecast System model shows the potential precipitation pattern from 6 a.m. Monday through 10 p.m. Monday:

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on MPR News at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:39 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.