Cold start to the week; updated wind chill warnings and advisories

This is exceptionally cold weather, and we’ll have to be patient as we wait for a warmup.

The Sunday high temp at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport was 2 degrees above zero. The average Twin Cities high temp is 23 degrees this time of year.

Much of Minnesota had subzero high temps Sunday afternoon.

A very cold Monday

Low temps early Monday morning will be in the teens below zero across much of Minnesota. Parts of the Twin Cities metro area will see Monday morning lows in the teens below zero, with single-digits below zero in portions of Minneapolis and St. Paul.

High temperatures on Martin Luther King Day will be below zero in most areas:

Some spots in the metro area could touch zero.

Wind chill warnings and advisories

There will be enough wind to generate wind chill temps of 25 degrees below zero or colder in most of Minnesota and portions of Wisconsin Sunday night into Monday and early Tuesday.

Here are forecast wind chills over the next few days:

Here are forecast wind chills for northern Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin:

Wind chill advisories are typically issued for forecast wind chills of 25 degrees below zero to 34 degrees below zero, with wind chill warnings for prolonged wind chills of 35 degrees below zero or colder.

A wind chill warning continues in southwestern Minnesota until noon on Tuesday. Portions of western Minnesota, including the cities of Alexandria, Morris, Willmar and Montevideo, are in a wind chill advisory until midnight Sunday night, followed by a wind chill warning until noon on Monday. That area will then return to a wind chill advisory from noon on Monday to noon on Tuesday. The remainder of Minnesota is in a wind chill advisory that continues Sunday evening to noon on Tuesday:

Western Wisconsin has a wind chill advisory until noon on Monday.

Here are details of the wind chill warning in southwestern Minnesota:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 251 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097- 098-NEZ013-014-SDZ038>040-050-052>071-150500- /O.CON.KFSD.WC.W.0001.000000T0000Z-240116T1800Z/ Lyon-Osceola-Dickinson-Sioux-O`Brien-Clay-Plymouth-Cherokee- Buena Vista-Woodbury-Ida-Lincoln-Murray-Cottonwood-Nobles-Jackson- Pipestone-Rock-Dixon-Dakota-Beadle-Kingsbury-Brookings-Gregory- Jerauld-Sanborn-Miner-Lake-Moody-Brule-Aurora-Davison-Hanson- McCook-Minnehaha-Charles Mix-Douglas-Hutchinson-Turner-Bon Homme- Yankton-Union- 251 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 ...WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Dangerously cold wind chills. Wind chills as low as 45 below zero. * WHERE...Portions of northwest and west central Iowa, southwest Minnesota, northeast Nebraska and central, east central, south central and southeast South Dakota. * WHEN...Until noon CST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...The dangerously cold wind chills could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 10 minutes. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Avoid outside activities if possible. When outside, make sure you wear appropriate clothing, a hat, and gloves.

Here are details of the wind chill advisory that includes the Twin Cities:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 421 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 ...DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS... .Dangerous wind chills are expected to last through Tuesday morning, with widespread values of 25 to 40 degrees below zero. A Wind Chill Warning is in effect for western Minnesota tonight through Monday morning. A Wind Chill Advisory is in effect for eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin tonight through Monday morning. After Monday morning, Wind Chill Advisories continue across Minnesota through Tuesday morning. MNZ042>045-049>053-058>063-066-068>070-076>078-084-085-150800- /O.CON.KMPX.WC.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-240116T1800Z/ Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stearns-Benton-Sherburne-Isanti- Chisago-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-McLeod- Carver-Scott-Dakota-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Waseca-Steele- Including the cities of Long Prairie, Little Falls, Princeton, Mora, St Cloud, Sauk Rapids, Elk River, Cambridge, Center City, Litchfield, Monticello, Minneapolis, Blaine, St Paul, Stillwater, Hutchinson, Chanhassen, Chaska, Victoria, Shakopee, Hastings, Le Sueur, Faribault, Red Wing, Waseca, and Owatonna 421 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Very cold wind chills. Wind chills as low as 35 below zero. * WHERE...Portions of central, east central, south central and southeast Minnesota. * WHEN...Until noon CST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...The cold wind chills could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 15 minutes. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Use caution while traveling outside. Wear appropriate clothing, a hat, and gloves. Limit the amount of time pets stay outdoors and ensure livestock have a warm place to reside.

You can hear updated weather information for Minnesota and western Wisconsin on the MPR News network. 

Updated forecast information will be posted by the National Weather Service offices in the Twin Cities, Duluth, La Crosse, Wis., Sioux Falls, S.D. and Grand Forks, N.D.

Mostly dry Monday

Most of Minnesota won’t see any precipitation on Martin Luther King Day. Far northern Minnesota could see patchy light snow showers Monday evening.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale Forecast System model shows the potential precipitation pattern from 6 a.m. Monday through 10 p.m. Monday:

Temperature trends

Tuesday high temps will be in the single-digits above zero:

Twin Cities metro area highs are projected to be around 14 degrees on Wednesday, followed by 9 on Thursday and 7 on Friday. Twin Cities high temps then rebound to the teens on Saturday, followed by lower 20s next Sunday.

Some forecast models show metro area highs in the 30s on Monday, Jan. 22. The NWS Climate Prediction Center shows a tendency for above-normal temps in Minnesota and Wisconsin from Jan. 22 through Jan. 28:

We’ll see if that pans out.

Weather nugget

Madison, Wisconsin has received a whopping 20.9 inches of snow this January. Just 1.8 inches of snow has been tallied at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport this January.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on MPR News at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:39 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.