Supersized January thaw ahead

Say goodbye to what little snow we have across most of Minnesota.

A supersized January thaw looks likely to wipe out all but the deepest snow cover across Minnesota by late next week. Bare ground combined with a higher sun angle and milder Pacific air mass could send temperatures even higher for the first days of February.

Arctic weekend first

Friday night brings the coldest night for the forecastable future, and possibly the rest of winter. Temperatures will reach minus 20 in northern Minnesota and likely dip just below zero in the Twin Cities. Saturday brings single digits to around 10 degrees.

Milder air begins to ease into Minnesota on Sunday. Highs will reach the 20s across much of the state.

This weekend may be the best opportunity to play in what snow we have and enjoy Minnesota's recently frozen lakes where they are safe.

Brighter days ahead

This weekend features sunshine which has been rare over the past three weeks. We’ve seen only about one mostly sunny day since Dec. 29. Twenty of the past 21 days have been mostly cloudy to cloudy. So the weekend sunshine will be welcome to many.

Here’s another spirit lifter. We’re now gaining two minutes of daylight per day in Minnesota. Sunday marks a full month past the winter solstice on Dec. 21. So we’ve just moved through the darkest two months of winter in Minnesota!

Extended January thaw

Forecast models agree on an extended flow of milder Pacific air masses into Minnesota over the next one to two weeks.

Below, check out the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Global Forecast System upper-air forecast through Feb. 2. See the warm colors indicating higher than normal upper-air levels, which translate into persistent pulses of milder air here on the ground across our region?

Highs will reach 30 degrees in the Twin Cities as soon as Monday, and highs in the mid to upper 30s across much of Minnesota look likely by later next week. Cue the thaw.

A shot at 50 degrees?

NOAA’s Global Forecast System model is cranking out some ridiculously warm air around here by early February. It’s probably overdone. But if we lose snow cover, a higher February sun could send temperatures into the 40s and maybe even 50s in some spots.

NOAA’s outlooks strongly favor much milder-than-normal air across Minnesota next week. Here’s the six to 10-day outlook:

And check out the week 3-4 outlook, which favors milder air into mid-February.

History would suggest more snow and subzero cold in February. But history is becoming a far less reliable indicator of Minnesota’s winter weather lately.

Stay tuned.