A break in the snow drought? First measurable snowfall in weeks coming
Most of Minnesota is seeing snowfall deficits of 2 to 3 feet
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The nonexistent winter of 2023-24 rolls on but we could finally see the first measurable snowfall in weeks for the Twin Cities. Snowfall statewide is far behind normal values.
The snow drought of the 2023-24 season
Snowfall deficits are staggering for this point in the winter. Duluth is more than 40 inches behind while in the Twin Cities we’re more than two feet behind for season to date snowfall.
In terms of percent of normal snowfall, almost all of Minnesota has seen just about 20 to 50 percent of normal snowfall. The record-warm winter certainly doesn’t help but we’ve also just been missing out on storm systems.
You can see a swath of normal snowfall thanks to a briefly active storm track to our south in January across Nebraska, Kansas into southern Iowa and northern Missouri.
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The result of warm winter temperatures and an extreme lack of snow is making for a pathetic looking snow cover map for mid February.
Only portions of the North Shore in northeastern Minnesota and northwestern Minnesota have 4 to 8 inches of snow pack, but even there this is far below normal.
Temperature the past 30 days have been averaging an astonishing 8 to 12 degrees above normal.
First measurable snowfall in weeks late Wednesday
The Twin Cities hasn’t seen a measurable snowfall (defined by a tenth of an inch or more) since Jan. 19. We haven’t had a 1-inch or greater snowfall since Halloween, which continues to be our largest snowfall of the season at 2.7 inches.
An initial band of snow will move across northern Minnesota Tuesday night bringing a coating of snow to some places but the main event develops late Wednesday with snow showers potentially mixing with rain initially in southern Minnesota.
Most of the snow will fall during the overnight hours Wednesday night.
Portions of southern Minnesota and especially southwestern Minnesota, could see several inches of fresh snow.
Some of the latest model runs are trending higher for the Twin Cities so we may need to watch additional forecast models through the day Tuesday to assess any trends.
Another snowfall could be possible Friday across southern Minnesota as well along with a brief shot of below normal temperatures. That’s something that hasn’t occurred since mid January either. It’s unlikely a trend however as temperatures are back in the 30s and 40s next week.