Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

A break in the snow drought? First measurable snowfall in weeks coming

Most of Minnesota is seeing snowfall deficits of 2 to 3 feet

snowf
Forecast snowfall late Wednesday into early Thursday
National Weather Service

The nonexistent winter of 2023-24 rolls on but we could finally see the first measurable snowfall in weeks for the Twin Cities. Snowfall statewide is far behind normal values.

The snow drought of the 2023-24 season 

Snowfall deficits are staggering for this point in the winter. Duluth is more than 40 inches behind while in the Twin Cities we’re more than two feet behind for season to date snowfall.

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Seasonal snowfall deficits
National Weather Service data

In terms of percent of normal snowfall, almost all of Minnesota has seen just about 20 to 50 percent of normal snowfall. The record-warm winter certainly doesn’t help but we’ve also just been missing out on storm systems.

You can see a swath of normal snowfall thanks to a briefly active storm track to our south in January across Nebraska, Kansas into southern Iowa and northern Missouri.

precent snowfall
Percent of normal seasonal snowfall
Midwest Regional Climate Center

The result of warm winter temperatures and an extreme lack of snow is making for a pathetic looking snow cover map for mid February.

Only portions of the North Shore in northeastern Minnesota and northwestern Minnesota have 4 to 8 inches of snow pack, but even there this is far below normal. 

snow cover
Snow cover analysis
National Weather Service

Temperature the past 30 days have been averaging an astonishing 8 to 12 degrees above normal. 

30 day T ANOM
30 day temperature anomalies (departure from normal)
Midwest Regional Climate Center

First measurable snowfall in weeks late Wednesday 

The Twin Cities hasn’t seen a measurable snowfall (defined by a tenth of an inch or more) since Jan. 19. We haven’t had a 1-inch or greater snowfall since Halloween, which continues to be our largest snowfall of the season at 2.7 inches. 

An initial band of snow will move across northern Minnesota Tuesday night bringing a coating of snow to some places but the main event develops late Wednesday with snow showers potentially mixing with rain initially in southern Minnesota.

Most of the snow will fall during the overnight hours Wednesday night. 

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Forecast precipitation 3 p.m. Tuesday through 3 a.m. Thursday
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, via Pivotal Weather

Portions of southern Minnesota and especially southwestern Minnesota, could see several inches of fresh snow. 

snowf
Forecast snowfall late Wednesday into early Thursday
National Weather Service

Some of the latest model runs are trending higher for the Twin Cities so we may need to watch additional forecast models through the day Tuesday to assess any trends. 

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Forecast model snowfall scenarios
NOAA, via Pivotal Weather

Another snowfall could be possible Friday across southern Minnesota as well along with a brief shot of below normal temperatures. That’s something that hasn’t occurred since mid January either. It’s unlikely a trend however as temperatures are back in the 30s and 40s next week.