Longest January thaw on record gives way to snow Wednesday

Hey Minnesota. We’re living through the longest January thaw ever recorded in the Twin Cities and across most of central Minnesota.

Wednesday will be the 24th straight day above the freezing mark in the Twin Cities. Our current January thaw began on Jan. 22. The Minnesota State Climatology Office keeps track of January thaws even if part of the thaw occurs in December or February.

We’ve already blown past the previous January thaw record of 21 days set in 2006-07.

Here’s more from the Minnesota State Climatology Office:

Rack up another bizarre record for the Lost Winter of 2023-24.

On February 12, 2024, the temperature climbed above freezing at the Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport for the the 22nd consecutive day, making this the longest "January Thaw" on record in the Twin Cities.

Really? A January Thaw in February?

Indeed! A January Thaw is defined as a run of at least two consecutive days with high temperatures above 32 F, during January. However, some January thaws begin in December or end in February, and to track the longest such thaws on record, we have to include those that begin or end in one of January's neighbor months, as long as the streak includes at least two days in January. This particular thaw began on January 22nd in the Twin Cities and was ongoing as of February 13th, making it 23 days and counting, and edging out the former champion from December 2006 into January of 2007.

St. Cloud also observed its longest January Thaw on record, spanning 17 days from January 24 through February 9, 2024.

It's not at all unusual to have above-freezing temperatures for two consecutive days during January in Minnesota. It happens over 80% of the time in the Twin Cities, and over 50% of the time in International Falls. For more information on the history and statistics of January Thaws, please see our article here. For more information about the warmth and other oddities of the 2023-24 winter, see our summary of the winter, our January recap, and our story on the historic December of 2023.

Snow on the way

I posted earlier Tuesday afternoon about our first inbound snow system in nearly four weeks due to arrive Wednesday into Wednesday night.

The latest 18Z forecast model runs continue the slight northward shift of this system. That means the Twin Cities could get a little more snow.

Here’s the 18Z NAM 3 km resolution model output between noon Wednesday and 2 a.m. Thursday:

Temperatures will rise to around 40 degrees in the Twin Cities and southern Minnesota Wednesday before the snow arrives. A few rain showers may fall before the change to snow.

Snow will likely arrive in the Twin Cities in the late afternoon and pick up Wednesday evening.

Snow will be falling on warm ground, so we may lose an inch or so of accumulation to melting. Most forecast models suggest little snow north of the Twin Cities, with an inch or two for much of the Twin Cities. Heavier totals of 3 to 4 inches look most likely in the southern Twin Cities.

There are signs this system could produce some heavier bands of snow that may locally drop 5 inches or more. Right now, the favored zone for that is west and south of the Twin Cities.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s NAM’s 3 km model is among those cranking out heaver snowfall potential. It should be noted this model often displays a northward bias.

Let’s see what the model runs crank out later Tuesday night and Wednesday morning before the snow flies.

Stay tuned.