Record low winter snow cover may boost spring fire danger
March-April fire risk above normal for most of Minnesota, northern Wisconsin
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The winter of 2023-2024 not only has been record warm but we’ve also see very low snowfall and snow cover. The lack of snow cover could lead to increased spring fire potential.
Extremely low snow cover by the numbers
Now you see it, now you don’t. That’s been the snow cover theme this season for much of Minnesota. After some snow mid-February that is all gone again after yet more recent warm weather.
The maps below show current snow cover and depth, and how they rank climatologically for this time of year.
Even at our peak in mid-January, most of the state was well below normal for snow depth and snow cover.
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In the Twin Cities, our average February snow depth has been just 1.4 inches. Normal February snow depth is 5.3 inches.
The story is much worse for northern Minnesota. Duluth has averaged just seven-tenths of an inch of snow depth this month compared to a normal February snow depth of 15.1 inches!
In the Twin Cities we’ve had just 21 days of snow cover (1 inch or more). That’s just 23 percent of meteorological winter. In a normal winter, we should have 67 days or nearly 75 percent of the winter season (Dec. 1-Feb. 29).
Increased spring fire danger?
The lack of snow will likely have a big impact on the potential spring fire season. Already there are fires burning in Canada, with Alberta declaring an early start to the fire season.
Minnesotans will recall the poor air quality last year due to a early and vigorous start to the Canadian wildfire season in the spring.
Already there are counties in northwestern and east-central Minnesota with moderate burning restrictions, which is rare in late February.
The spring outlook calls for an above-normal risk of fire danger for most of Minnesota and northern Wisconsin.
The spring fire season is a normal process between the spring thaw and green up. Typically there’s ample moisture in the soils after a wet fall and winter snow pack melt but with a lack of that this year, things could get dry quickly and earlier than normal.