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Record warmth Monday; big changes later this week

March temps about 13 degrees warmer than normal so far

Temperatures Monday afternoon 2
Record warm temperatures Monday afternoon are normal for May 13 across Minnesota.
Oklahoma Mesonet

Monday delivered May-like temperatures to Minnesota. We smashed records across the state on Monday. Check out the plume of record warmth pushing north into Minnesota on the map at the top of this post.

The Twin Cities topped out at 68 degrees Monday afternoon. That beat the previous record of 66 degrees (2016, 2021). It’s also 29 degrees warmer than the normal high for March 11. In fact, 68 degrees is the normal high for May 13, more than two months away.

Temperatures reached the 60s all the way north to the Canadian border Monday afternoon. It hit 61 degrees in International Falls. That ties the record high for this date.

Our May preview lingers into Wednesday this week. Highs Tuesday reach the 60s once again across much of southern Minnesota.

Forecast high temperatures Tuesday
Forecast high temperatures Tuesday
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

The near-record warm and dry weather brings high fire danger Tuesday.

Wednesday brings mild air to the south again, with cooler temperatures filtering into northern Minnesota.

Forecast high temperatures Wednesday
Forecast high temperatures Wednesday
NOAA

Big changes later this week

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Global Forecast System model shows a mostly rain system pushing into southern Minnesota Thursday. The GFS hints at a few snowflakes mixing in, but most models suggest this system will be all rain.

NOAA GFS model
Global Forecast System model for Thursday
NOAA, via Tropical Tidbits

Temperature crash later this week into the weekend. By Sunday, it will feel like March around here once again.

Forecast high temperatures Sunday
Forecast high temperatures Sunday
NOAA

And NOAA’s eight to 14-day outlook finally favors colder-than-normal temperatures for the first time in weeks to months.

NOAA 8 to 14-day temperature outlook
Temperature outlook March 19-25
NOAA

It appears we’re finally headed back to March weather reality in the next 1-2 weeks.